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CRE Loan Modifications: May–July 2026 Report Summary. CRED iQ tracked 82 modified CMBS and CRE CLO loans with a combined $2.36 billion in outstanding balance from May through July 2026. The mix looks different than it did a few quarters ago: extend-and-pretend hasn’t disappeared, but it’s no longer the whole story.…
Across the 50 largest CMBS markets, $45.8 billion of $393.5 billion in outstanding balance is currently distressed, a balance-weighted rate of 11.6%. Minneapolis (55.1%), Denver (35.9%), and Oklahoma City (34.1%) lead the rankings, each shaped by a handful of very large loans rather than broad weakness, while Salt…
CRED iQ’s July 2026 surveillance data shows the Overall Distress Rate for CMBS climbed to 10.91%, up 22 basis points month-over-month, driven primarily by a 42-bps jump in the Special Servicing Rate to 10.38%. The Delinquency Rate rose more modestly, to 8.68%. For CRE and CMBS investors, brokers, and lenders trying…
A handful of the latest CRE CLO deals lean hard into multifamily collateral and full-term interest-only structures. CRED iQ analyzed loan-level collateral across a handful of the latest CRE CLO deals totaling $4.68 billion and 160 loans of collateral, and the profile points to lenders concentrating risk in the…
This is a news announcement from CRED iQ published on July 16, 2026, regarding the appointment of Liam Mulcahy to the position of Senior Product Manager for CRE Data & Applied AI. The announcement is categorized within the CMBS and debt-financing sectors and covers national United States operations.
Bank multifamily loan delinquencies at FDIC-insured institutions rose to 1.47% in Q1 2026, up 5 basis points from 1.42% at year-end 2025, with delinquent balances reaching $9.78 billion despite continued portfolio expansion to $665.3 billion. The analysis finds that seriously delinquent loans (90+ days past due or nonaccrual) increased to 1.07%, while the net charge-off rate remained low at 0.11% annualized, suggesting banks are resolving troubled credit through extensions and workouts rather than write-downs.
Commercial mortgage-backed securities distress rate reached 12.07% in March 2026, with delinquencies hitting a new cycle high.
Analysis of special servicing rates in commercial mortgage-backed securities, reporting levels at 11.1% and delinquency trends.
Analysis of rising delinquency rates in multifamily lending and their relationship to emerging loss trends.
Analysis of commercial real estate CLO market distress rates and non-performing maturities from CRED iQ.
CRED iQ reports on delinquency trends showing distress rates climbing to 11.4% in October, approaching historical highs.
Analysis of commercial real estate CLO delinquency metrics showing a significant 180 basis point reduction in distress rates.
A CRED iQ analysis of eight Freddie Mac multifamily securitizations priced in early 2026 (representing 472 loans and $7.2 billion) found weighted-average debt service coverage of 1.41x against 63.9% loan-to-value, with approximately 95% of balance carrying full-term or partial interest-only structures to maintain coverage in an elevated rate environment. The report identifies three dominant themes: coverage being manufactured through interest-only relief rather than cash flow, leverage holding steady while pricing adjusted upward (4.9% to 5.66% gross rates), and acquisition activity comprising 40% of balance, while flagging floating-rate pools like KF172 as concentrated refinancing and rate-cap-expiry risk concentrated among sub-1.25x amortizing coverage loans in Florida and the Midwest garden segment.
CRED iQ's overall CMBS distress rate rose to 11.86% in May 2026, up from 11.08% in April, driven by increases in both special servicing and delinquency rates. Office properties showed the highest distress at 17.11%, followed by mixed-use at 16.12%, while self-storage, industrial, and manufactured housing remained resilient with distress rates near or below 1.2%. The overall distress rate has more than doubled since mid-2022 when it was near 5%, indicating that resolution activity has not kept pace with new transfers into distress.
CRED iQ analyzed $26.1 billion in newly securitized CMBS loans from 2026 and found that balance-weighted average cap rates now align almost exactly with average mortgage coupons, creating zero positive leverage for typical borrowers, with the split driven primarily by property type: favored sectors (multifamily, industrial, self-storage, mixed-use, manufactured housing) finance at negative leverage ranging from −19 to −86 basis points, while distressed sectors (hospitality at +124 bps, office at +95 bps, retail at +20 bps) maintain positive leverage. Cap rates range from 5.41% (manufactured housing) to 8.02% (hospitality), with office and hotel underwriting marked as extremely conservative at 13.8% weighted debt yields and 55.4% LTV, while 56% of new-issue balance is structured as full-term interest-only to offset thin leverage spreads.
CRED iQ's May 2026 CMBS distress analysis found that the overall distress rate among the top 25 largest U.S. metropolitan areas increased to 12.7% from 12.2% in June 2025, with 17 of the 25 markets posting year-over-year increases led by Midwest and mid-major markets. Minneapolis (55.2%), Denver (43.0%), and Rochester (40.1%) posted the highest distress rates, while St. Louis experienced the largest single-year surge, climbing from 8.2% to 38.1%, reflecting accelerating loan impairment in markets with concentrated office exposure and maturing floating-rate debt from 2021–2022 vintages.
Walker & Dunlop led Fannie Mae multifamily lending in 2026 year-to-date through May 13 with $2.18 billion across 110 loans, followed by CBRE Multifamily Capital at $1.88 billion and PGIM Real Estate Agency Financing at $1.56 billion, with the top ten lenders controlling approximately 78% of the $16.5 billion in total Fannie Mae multifamily volume. Refinancing drove 62.8% of originations as borrowers addressed maturing debt, while gateway markets including New York–Newark–Jersey City ($1.6 billion), San Jose–Sunnyvale–Santa Clara ($0.75 billion), and Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim ($0.72 billion) attracted the most capital.
Bank multifamily loan delinquencies at U.S. banks reached 1.42% in Q4 2025, up 5.9 times from the cycle low of 0.24% in Q3 2022, while outstanding multifamily loan balances grew to a record $659.5 billion in Q4 2025. The deterioration is concentrated in 90+ day past-due loans at 1.04%, attributed to elevated debt service costs at refinancing, weaker rent growth in pandemic-era boom markets, and tighter underwriting standards.
U.S. bank construction and development loan balances fell to $456.3 billion in Q4 2025, down 5.7% year-over-year and marking the sixth consecutive quarter of contraction, according to CRED iQ analysis. The decline of $45 billion from the post-pandemic peak of $501.5 billion in Q4 2023 reflects elevated borrowing costs, tightened underwriting standards, and softening commercial real estate fundamentals. The past-due and nonaccrual rate on C&D loans stood at 1.34% in Q4 2025, elevated relative to recent lows but well below post-financial crisis stress levels.
CRED iQ's April 2026 analysis of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas found an overall CMBS distress rate of 12.2%, with office property registering the highest distress at 17.0% followed by mixed-use at 14.6%, while industrial remained lowest at 1.9%. The report identified Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, and Denver-Aurora as the most distressed markets, while Sun Belt metros including Miami, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta posted sub-10% distress rates; multifamily distress also emerged as a growing concern at 11.4% aggregate, particularly in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont and Minneapolis-St. Paul.
CRED iQ's loan-level analysis of approximately 3,700 CMBS loans totaling $94.7 billion finds that debt yields have rebounded to a weighted-average of 10.3% across property types, with office leading at 15.75% and multifamily lowest at 8.87%. The analysis reveals that four of six property types (multifamily, retail, industrial, and self-storage) exhibit negative leverage, meaning cap rates fall below loan coupons, indicating that new acquisitions cannot generate day-one positive returns without future NOI growth or refinancing relief.
Commercial real estate loan spreads compressed between 12 and 18 basis points over the trailing twelve months through Q1 2026, with multifamily leading the tightening at 18 basis points and industrial lagging at 12 basis points, while office spreads remained an outlier at 220 basis points compared to 154 basis points for multifamily as of March 31, 2026. The tightening, driven by moderating Treasury volatility and renewed conduit issuance in Q1 2026, has created more constructive refinancing conditions for borrowers facing 2026 maturities, with 10-year life company quotes narrowing to approximately 170 basis points at 50–65 percent LTV and office continuing to price wider due to elevated distress and rollover risk concerns.
CRED iQ's February 2026 analysis ranks the top 100 U.S. Core-Based Statistical Areas by CMBS distress rate, defining distress as loans in special servicing, 30+ day delinquency, or REO status across Conduit and SBLL deal structures. Office property type leads all sectors at 21.2% average distress rate, while Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington ranks as the most distressed major metro at 54.3%, driven primarily by office (72.7%) and hotel (92.2%) loan deterioration, with gateway markets Chicago (22.7%), Denver (22.4%), and San Francisco (21.0%) also posting elevated distress rates tied to post-pandemic office absorption challenges.
CRED iQ reports the overall CMBS distress rate rose to 11.70 percent in December 2025, a third consecutive monthly increase, with a delinquency rate of 8.89 percent and a specially serviced rate of 11.15 percent.
CRED iQ records a November 2025 CMBS distress rate of 11.6 percent, with non-performing matured loans comprising the largest share of the distressed universe and office exhibiting the highest sector stress.
CRED iQ's third-quarter 2025 market update reviews CMBS distress trends and broader commercial real estate conditions across major property sectors.
CRED iQ reports the CMBS distress rate reached a record 11.8 percent, driven by maturity defaults and continued stress in the office sector.
CRED iQ records the CMBS distress rate climbing back to 11 percent, ending three consecutive monthly reductions as maturity pressures persist.
CRED iQ reports the CMBS special servicing rate climbed to 9.9 percent as loans continued transferring to special servicing ahead of imminent default and maturity.