The industry's own research.
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Mortgage application activity declined 5.5% month-over-month in May 2026 due to higher rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.54%, though adjustable-rate mortgages gained share to 9.0% of total applications as borrowers sought lower initial rates. Year-over-year, total mortgage applications remained 14.2% higher, with refinance applications up 26.4% and purchase applications rising 6.2%, while ARM applications increased 38.2% compared to May 2025.

The U.S. labor market showed continued resilience in May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000 jobs for the third consecutive month and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, while wage growth moderated to 3.4% year-over-year. Job gains concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, though residential construction employment declined by 33,300 jobs over the past 12 months, marking the fifteenth consecutive annual decline.

The median wage of construction payroll workers in 2025 was $61,370, exceeding the U.S. median of $50,980, with Chief Executive Officers earning the highest median wages in the industry at over $198,000. Among construction trades specifically, elevator installers and repairers topped the list with a median wage of $113,710, while carpenters, plumbers, and electricians all earned substantially above the national median, with wage variation generally correlating to required education, training, and expertise levels.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May 2026, up 7 basis points from April and 36 basis points since the Middle East conflict began, while the 15-year rate averaged 5.76%, also up 7 basis points monthly as elevated inflation and rising energy prices pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.47%. Persistently high inflation strained household budgets, causing the personal saving rate to fall to 2.6% in April, the lowest level since June 2022.

National house prices rose 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, the slowest annual appreciation since the second quarter of 2012, driven by higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Regional variation was pronounced: Puerto Rico led with 16.3% appreciation while Colorado recorded the largest decline at 2.4%, and among the 100 largest metro areas, annual appreciation ranged from −6.9% to +10.8%, with Midwest and Northeast metros outperforming while markets in Florida and Texas weakened.

In April 2026, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 41 states and the District of Columbia with a national gain of 115,000 jobs, while construction employment added 9,000 jobs nationwide with 32 states recording gains. State unemployment rates ranged from 2.2 percent in South Dakota to 6.2 percent in the District of Columbia, which experienced significant federal workforce reductions exceeding 300,000 positions in 2025.

Construction job openings in the United States increased slightly from 234,000 in March to 259,000 in April 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, with the construction job openings rate rising to 3% in April from 2.4% a year prior. The article notes that while overall economy job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, construction openings remain measurably lower than three years ago due to declines in housing construction activity, though recent nonresidential construction gains have provided some offset.

Single-family construction declined across all geographies in Q1 2026, with large metro core counties experiencing the sharpest pullback of 16.0% year-over-year, driven by elevated interest rates, rising material costs, and labor shortages, while multifamily construction expanded in most markets with large metro core counties leading at 20.8% growth. The data reflects a decade-long structural shift away from dense population centers toward smaller and outlying markets in single-family construction, while multifamily construction has recently begun regaining share in large metro core counties after a period of migration to smaller markets.

Private residential construction spending increased 0.8% in April 2026, driven primarily by gains in single-family and home improvement spending, with total private residential construction spending 1.7% higher than April 2025. Single-family construction spending rose 1.4% monthly but declined 2.9% year-over-year, while remodeling spending increased 0.4% monthly and was up 7.5% year-over-year, whereas multifamily construction spending edged down 0.3% in April but remained 1.1% higher than a year earlier.