Real Estate Enters the Next Phase of the Cycle

Blackstone's Global Head of Real Estate argues the sector has reached an attractive entry point, with construction down 60%+, debt costs down ~40% since 2023, and valuations only modestly off their trough. Conviction themes include data centers, warehouses, and rental housing.

Outlook 2026 - Canadian Commercial Real Estate

Avison Young's annual Canadian CRE outlook, with 97% of surveyed experts expecting activity to increase or hold steady and the strongest sales quarter since 2022 in Q3 2025.

Global Real Estate Outlook

JLL identifies six interconnected forces reshaping commercial real estate in 2026, spanning cost pressures, supply constraints, AI implementation, energy-system convergence, and broadened investment access.

Outlook 2026 - U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Avison Young's annual US CRE outlook, drawing on a survey of 270+ market experts showing confidence rising to nearly 70% heading into 2026, with sector-by-sector guidance.

LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2026: Americas real estate poised to break its Groundhog Day cycle

The Americas chapter of LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2026, with stabilizing valuations, improving debt market liquidity and a sharp pullback in new development signaling early signs of a new cycle.

Navigating Dispersion: Real Estate Strategies for 2026

A Barings and Artemis roundtable across the U.S., Europe, and Asia Pacific arguing 2026 is a stock picker's market requiring active selection and granular analysis as performance disperses by quality and location.

Global investment trends and cross-border capital flows

Avison Young experts examine global real estate investment trends and cross-border capital flows, covering the London office resurgence, US debt liquidity and the 2026 investor outlook.

2026 Real Estate Outlook: United States

PGIM's house view for US commercial real estate in 2026 argues that uncertainty is prolonging the early phase of the recovery cycle, while tepid capital availability creates a favorable vintage for selective acquisitions, development and credit.

2026 Real Estate Outlook: Private CRE Credit

PGIM Real Estate's 2026 outlook for private commercial real estate credit, noting rising multifamily origination share and demand for transitional bridge-to-agency financing amid upcoming loan maturities.

U.S. Market Big-Box Report | 2025 Mid-Year Outlook

This mid-year big-box industrial report finds the North American market stabilizing after years of historic growth and rebalancing, setting the stage for the next expansion cycle.

Main Streets Across the World 2025

The 35th edition analyzes rents across 141 premier urban retail locations globally, finding headline rents grew 4.2% year-over-year amid enduring demand for flagship main-street space.

H1 2025 | U.S. Office Market Tech Trends

A thematic report on how the technology industry drives the U.S. office market, tracking tech talent and corporate expansion beyond the San Francisco Bay Area into emerging hubs.

Navigating liquidity and lease-up opportunities in today's multifamily market

Examines how multifamily owners can use expanded financing options when facing maturing construction debt or lease-up properties, advocating parallel execution paths including agency takeouts, bridge financing, and sales. Draws on RealPage and Zelman data.

2Q25 U.S. Multifamily Capital Markets Report

Second quarter 2025 U.S. multifamily capital markets report, noting record-setting demand, resilient absorption and vacancy compression despite robust new supply.

2Q25 U.S. Office Leasing House View

Newmark's house view on the U.S. office leasing market for the second quarter of 2025, summarizing demand, availability and rent trends.

2Q25 U.S. Life Science Market Conditions & Trends

Newmark presents the second quarter 2025 U.S. Life Science Market Conditions & Trends report, tracking leasing, lab demand, vacancy and tenant activity across major life science clusters.

Q1 2025 Leading Office Markets Snapshot

A snapshot of the 15 leading U.S. office markets in Q1 2025, with the road to recovery being led by Manhattan amid a steady 20.1% combined vacancy rate.

U.S. Office Market Five Years After the Pandemic

This thematic analysis revisits Colliers' 2020 forecasts to assess how the U.S. office market and tenant behaviors have transformed five years after the onset of COVID-19.

Spring Retail Report | 2025 – The Real Retail Reality: Stores Thrive Amid Uncertainty

Colliers' Spring 2025 Retail Report examines how the U.S. retail sector is adapting to a fast-changing consumer and economic environment, including an interview with Hotel Chocolat's CEO.

Ten critical considerations for exploring your small-balance multifamily financing options

A financing guide comparing ten factors borrowers should weigh when selecting small-balance multifamily debt sources, including loan structure, hold period, and lender type. Contrasts direct lenders versus intermediaries.

United States Capital Markets Report

Newmark's U.S. capital markets report covering investment sales, debt maturities and pricing trends, including an estimated $582 billion of potentially troubled debt maturing in 2025-2026.

2025 North America Industrial Outlook

Newmark's outlook for the North American industrial market, weighing near-term softness from trade policy uncertainty against long-term tailwinds from manufacturing growth and supply-chain regionalization.

2025 Inaugural Multifamily Investment Sentiment Survey: Opportunities and Trends to Watch

Survey of 200+ clients on 2025 multifamily expectations: 65% plan moderate portfolio expansion, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac expected as most active lenders, and stable cap rates with exit rates 25-50 bps higher than entry.

Key takeaways from MBA CREF 2025

Field report from the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention covering capital availability, lending competition, and credit-spread compression across CRE sectors. Notes spreads as tight as 2021 and shifting lender risk tolerance.

2025 U.S. Data Center Market Outlook

Newmark's outlook on the U.S. data center sector, highlighting an AI-driven structural boom with record annualized spending on new construction and intense competition for power and industrial-zoned development sites.

LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2025: The start of a new cycle for US and Canadian real estate

LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2025 North America chapter, forecasting that US and Canadian real estate is on the verge of a new cycle as interest rates fall from peak and transaction volume grows slowly.

U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025 - Capital Markets

CBRE projects a gradual recovery in U.S. commercial real estate investment in 2025, with cap rates moderately compressing and industrial and multifamily assets remaining investor favorites.

Insurance on the Rise: Climate Risk and Real Estate Investment Decisions

Heitman and ULI's fifth climate-risk report examines the impact of rising property insurance costs on commercial real estate, with strategies for securing affordable coverage and emerging trends reshaping the market.

US Residential Market Insight

Knight Frank's review of US residential market dynamics, covering pricing, demand and prime-market trends across major American cities.

Optimizing Debt Solutions Amid Seniors Housing Industry Growth

Examination of seniors housing financing options across traditional lenders, debt funds, and GSEs (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, HUD), noting a 23% rise in acquisition activity and tighter refinancing terms.

Invesco Listed Real Assets: Real estate performance commentary for the sector

Invesco's Listed Real Assets team's recurring commentary on the listed real estate market and outlook, covering market and sector performance, sub-sector reviews and regional forecasts.

Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding

MBA's quarterly research series tracking the level of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding by capital source, with a downloadable latest report.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, May 2026

Home prices fell from prior peaks in 28 of 33 major expensive U.S. cities tracked in May 2026, with the largest declines in Austin (-27%), Oakland (-26%), and New Orleans (-19%), while prices rose year-over-year in only eight cities, notably Chicago and New York City which reached new all-time highs, and San Francisco where AI-driven compensation packages created a "mansion shortage" effect that boosted mid-tier prices 7.8% year-over-year. The analysis attributes prior price spikes from mid-2020 to mid-2022—led by Austin (+62%), Phoenix (+60%), and Fort Worth (+50%)—to Federal Reserve monetary policies including near-zero mortgage rates through quantitative easing, which created the current affordability crisis.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025. It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3…

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate

Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026

The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. …

December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to…

Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data…

Comments on December Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Earlier:

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity -…

Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Flow of Funds

The document announces four U.S. economic data releases scheduled for Friday, January 10, 2026: the December employment report (consensus expectation of 55,000 jobs added and unemployment declining to 4.5%), Housing Starts for September and October, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading for January, and Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts from the Federal Reserve.

Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States . The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The…

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000 . This is 4.6 percent below the…

Trade Deficit Decreased to $29.4 Billion in October

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in…

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased Slightly in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year

From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 Trends The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices…

Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims

The post previews two economic reports scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 A.M. ET: the Census Bureau's Trade Balance report for November, with a consensus forecast of a $59.4 billion trade deficit, and the initial weekly unemployment claims report, with a consensus expectation of 205,000 claims up from 199,000 the prior week.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 208,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000 , an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000…

BLS: Job Openings Declined to 7.1 million in November

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and…

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Job Openings, ISM Services

The post from Calculated Risk announces the economic indicators scheduled for release on Wednesday, January 8, 2026, including the ADP Employment Report for December (with a consensus expectation of 50,000 private jobs added, up from a loss of 32,000 in November), the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November, the ISM Services Index for December, and the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications index. The document provides the release times and basic descriptions of each report without presenting final findings or analysis.

ISM® Services Index Increased to 54.4% in December

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in…

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995.…

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period

From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA)…

Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.0 Million SAAR in December

The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024.

Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."