State-Level Employment Situation: May 2026

U.S. Home-Price Growth Accelerated in May, Fueled by April’s Brief Mortgage-Rate Reprieve

Home prices rose 0.3% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Prices rose 2.5% on a year-over-year basis–the fastest growth rate in six months. On a local level, prices rose in 29 major metros month over month, with the biggest increases in Cleveland, Providence and New York. This is based on the Redfin…

NYC Suburbs and the Bay Area Are This Spring’s Most Competitive Housing Markets

More than half of homes are selling above asking price in Newark, San Francisco, San Jose and Nassau County, making them the most competitive markets in the nation. The AI boom is leading to bidding wars in the Bay Area, and in the Northeast, many metros are seller’s markets. The least competitive markets are in…

IREI: BGO's Ryan Severino says weak job growth does not automatically signal recession

BGO chief economist Ryan Severino argues weak job growth does not automatically signal recession.

Markets with the Most Fortune 500 Headquarters in 2026

Ranks U.S. markets by concentration of Fortune 500 corporate headquarters and the office-demand implications.

Structural Demand Outpacing Supply: Jobs-to-Permits Ratios Highlight Housing Gap

46% of Home Sellers Gave Concessions to Buyers in May, the Highest Share on Record For That Month

Nearly half of U.S. home sellers gave concessions to buyers in May, the highest May share in our records Concessions were most common in Nashville, the nation’s strongest buyer’s market, where three-quarters of sellers handed out concessions to attract buyers. They were least common in the Bay Area and other…

The Missing Dot

Half the committee is now willing to discuss another rate hike this year.

Momentum Fractures Across Markets

Q1 2026 APAC economic and property market outlook.

The Chief Economist: Productivity Doing The Work

Productivity gains rather than employment are driving output, with implications for CRE.

RealPage Economy Express Episode 66

Job growth remained steady while inflation resurged, creating headwinds for consumer purchasing power and apartment demand.

Spiking Energy Costs Propel Inflation to a Three-Year High in May

Inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May 2026, the highest in three years, driven by surging energy costs.

May 2026 UK Residential Market Survey

Monthly RICS sentiment survey of UK residential sales and lettings conditions for May 2026.

FEDS Note: Measuring Renters in Credit Data: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative Data

Anna Tranfaglia and Erin Troland Historic swings in rents during the pandemic have driven increased interest in research on the financial impacts of rising rents on households. However, compared to homeowners with a mortgage, data on renters are scarce, limiting researchers’ ability to analyze the 28 percent of…

FEDS Note: Mortgage Servicing Right Valuations Under Stress

Karen Pence , Ben Ranish , and Michael Suher Mortgage servicing right (MSR) valuations decrease when mortgage default and prepayment rates increase, as is generally the case when the economy enters into recession. To estimate how large these MSR valuation declines could be for the banking sector in a severe…

FEDS Note: Monitoring High Credit Growth: The Link Between Local Deposits and CRE Lending

Teodora Paligorova , and Toshihide Yorozu Outstanding mortgage debt in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector totaled $6 trillion at the end of 2024 including owner-occupied and nonowner-occupied real estate, multifamily mortgages, and loans backed by acquisition, development, and construction projects. Banks hold…

Housing Payments Hit 1-Year High, Sending Buyers to the Sidelines

Pending home sales fell for the fifth week in a row, and new listings declined, too. The median U.S. monthly housing payment hit $2,647 during the four weeks ending June 14, its highest level in a year and just about $100 shy of 2023’s all-time high. Housing payments are rising because both home-sale prices and […]…

Former Red-Hot Seller’s Markets, Like Atlanta, Now Lead the Nation in Canceled Home Sales

Nationwide, 13.6% of the homebuying deals made in May fell through. That share has held steady over the last 4 months as buyers and sellers grow accustomed to today’s market. 4 of the 10 metros where contract cancellations were most common were in Texas, and three were in Florida; all are strong buyer’s markets.…

Mortgage Rates Likely to Stay High For Now as Markets Digest Warsh’s First Fed Meeting

Takeaway: He’s no one’s sock puppet! Now that Kevin Warsh has the job, he’s ready to make changes. It will take markets a while to fully digest the full breadth of today’s meeting, but the hawkish shift in the committee’s projections will keep mortgage rates high for now. In some ways though, that’s almost besides…

Florida Dominates May’s Most Expensive Home Sales, Led by a $75 Million Boca Raton Deal

A Boca Raton mansion within a private golf course community and two apartments in New York City are among May’s most expensive home sales. A massive waterfront estate in Boca Raton, two ultra-luxury Manhattan properties, and several waterfront Florida estates were among May’s most expensive home sales. A sprawling…

Markets Eye Strait of Hormuz Reopening and Warsh’s First Fed Meeting as Key Tests This Week

This Week In A Nutshell: It’s going to be a big week with an announced deal that may open the Strait of Hormuz by Friday and Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting on Wednesday. Upcoming Attractions The two key events to watch this week are (1) whether the newly announced between the US and Iran […] The post Markets Eye…

SpaceX Employees Could Buy 2 in 5 San Antonio Homes With Their IPO Windfall

The massive IPO would create enough wealth for SpaceX employees to buy roughly 40% of all the homes in San Antonio, one of the closest major metros to where the company is headquartered. Or they could buy every single home in McAllen, located just 80 miles away from the SpaceX headquarters. Alternatively, they…

How retiree discretionary spending is supporting consumer-facing CRE in the UK

Retiree discretionary spending is growing, driven by increased leisure demand and wealth transfer, shaping the future of consumer real estate.]]>

2026 Mid-year Inside Real Estate outlook

Principal's mid-year house view argues the CRE recovery remains intact but uneven, with high conviction in data centers and residential, caution on life sciences, and an increasingly global portfolio approach.

The Search for Growth - U.S. Research Perspective

AEW's U.S. economic and property market outlook covering office, apartment, industrial, and retail fundamentals alongside macro context on growth, inflation, labor, and Fed policy.

Canada Housing

Lower rate volatility is supporting further housing recovery as Canada's average single-family home price finds a floor after nearly a year of decline.

Inflation and Employment Outlook

June 2026 research brief: job creation is rising while inflation worsens, creating a mixed outlook for commercial real estate as the labor market regains footing after a prolonged slowdown.

New Logistics Demand Drivers Offset Impact from Iran Conflict - Europe Research Perspective

AEW's European research perspective examining how new logistics demand drivers are offsetting geopolitical pressures, with implications for industrial real estate fundamentals across the region.

Canada Monetary Policy

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent; a higher-for-longer rate environment is curbing commercial real estate investment momentum.

Canada Employment

Canada's labour market rebound supports commercial real estate stability, with the economy adding 88,000 jobs in May, the largest monthly gain since late 2024.

Inflation

May CPI data shows the most disruptive phase of the price shock may be easing, with contained core inflation and implications for retail tenant demand and big-box absorption.

Employment

June 2026 brief: job growth defies constraints as employers added 176,000 roles, supporting rental demand and consumer spending across commercial property types.

Canada Industrial

June 2026 brief: industrial demand is set to rise as a manufacturing recovery broadens, with output up 4.2 per cent month-over-month across most subsectors.

Europe CRE 360 - May 2026

Cross-asset European commercial real estate forecast, with investment moderating as stakeholders await price clarity and the Eurozone economy projected to grow 1.0% in 2026.

Global Real Estate Perspective, May 2026

JLL's quarterly perspective analyzes global real estate trends across investment, office, logistics, retail, living, and hospitality sectors amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

AI Impact on Gateway Cities

Examines how AI and machine learning firms concentrate in the Bay Area, New York and London, with AI leasing remaining strong across San Francisco and Manhattan's AI leasing already surpassing all of 2025.

AI and the Future of Office: Quantifying Workforce Change and Space Demand Through 2030

A thematic study quantifying how AI-driven workforce change is expected to reshape U.S. office space demand through 2030.

U.S. Real Estate: Gradual Recovery Supported by Low New Supply

Barings' U.S. CRE research notes recovery underpinned by solid household balance sheets, sharply lower construction activity, three-year-high transaction volumes in Q4 2025, and record CMBS issuance amid disciplined underwriting.

Real Estate Enters the Next Phase of the Cycle

Blackstone's Global Head of Real Estate argues the sector has reached an attractive entry point, with construction down 60%+, debt costs down ~40% since 2023, and valuations only modestly off their trough. Conviction themes include data centers, warehouses, and rental housing.

(Y)our Space

Knight Frank's flagship global corporate real estate research bringing data-led insight on the future direction of office occupancy, workplace strategy and corporate space requirements.

Global Real Estate Outlook

JLL identifies six interconnected forces reshaping commercial real estate in 2026, spanning cost pressures, supply constraints, AI implementation, energy-system convergence, and broadened investment access.

LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2026: No more deja vu for European real estate

The Europe chapter of LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2026, arguing European real estate is breaking out of the cycle with strong occupier demand in luxury high streets and prime city-center offices.

LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2026: Asia Pacific real estate rewrites the script

The Asia Pacific chapter of LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2026, as long-standing assumptions about trade, demographics and inflation give way to more intricate market dynamics.

LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2026: Americas real estate poised to break its Groundhog Day cycle

The Americas chapter of LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2026, with stabilizing valuations, improving debt market liquidity and a sharp pullback in new development signaling early signs of a new cycle.

2026 Real Estate Outlook: Asia Pacific

PGIM Real Estate's 2026 view on Asia Pacific markets, highlighting the flight to quality and ongoing rental outperformance of CBD over non-CBD offices.

2026 Real Estate Outlook: United States

PGIM's house view for US commercial real estate in 2026 argues that uncertainty is prolonging the early phase of the recovery cycle, while tepid capital availability creates a favorable vintage for selective acquisitions, development and credit.

Key takeaways from MBA CREF 2025

Field report from the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention covering capital availability, lending competition, and credit-spread compression across CRE sectors. Notes spreads as tight as 2021 and shifting lender risk tolerance.

LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2025: The start of a new cycle for US and Canadian real estate

LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2025 North America chapter, forecasting that US and Canadian real estate is on the verge of a new cycle as interest rates fall from peak and transaction volume grows slowly.

Insurance on the Rise: Climate Risk and Real Estate Investment Decisions

Heitman and ULI's fifth climate-risk report examines the impact of rising property insurance costs on commercial real estate, with strategies for securing affordable coverage and emerging trends reshaping the market.

US Residential Market Insight

Knight Frank's review of US residential market dynamics, covering pricing, demand and prime-market trends across major American cities.

Climate Migration and Real Estate Investment Decision-Making

A Heitman and ULI report finding that environmental change is prompting migration of people and businesses, movements that may trigger significant shifts in demand for real estate.

Beyond the Bond Yield: Examining Cap Rate Drivers

Berkadia Research whitepaper challenging the assumed lockstep between bond yields and cap rates, identifying unemployment, Treasury yields, transaction volume, and effective rent as significant cap-rate drivers.

Invesco Listed Real Assets: Real estate performance commentary for the sector

Invesco's Listed Real Assets team's recurring commentary on the listed real estate market and outlook, covering market and sector performance, sub-sector reviews and regional forecasts.

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Price Drops & Gains in 33 Big Expensive Cities, May 2026

What Homebuilder Lennar Said about the Tough Housing Market: Average Sales Price Down 24% from Peak, back to 2017

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and <a…

This is the End and a New Beginning

I’ve been thinking about this for some time. After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I’ve decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog. However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I’ll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each…

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025. It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3…

Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026

The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. …

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: <a…