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After the Reset
Higher interest rates have triggered a substantial revaluation across real estate markets, yet underlying sector fundamentals remain resilient.
Capital MarketsREITsGlobalUnited States
Updated 1 month ago
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Higher interest rates have triggered a substantial revaluation across real estate markets, yet underlying sector fundamentals remain resilient.
Quick take on the rising importance of capital expenditure, particularly AI-related investment, in shaping inflation dynamics.
June 2026 The rental markets in Australian capital cities are about to enter a period that housing policy makers need to carefully monitor. The key insight from our analysis is that changes to rental growth or vacancy rates due to the delivery of additional supply is a positive policy outcome. These same changes to…
1. The market is correcting, not collapsing Speaker credit: Jeff Myers, Nader Elrashidy The life sciences market has clearly moved out of its peak-growth phase, but that does not mean the sector is broken. The better read is that the market is recalibrating after several years of rapid expansion, heavy investment,…
The Philippine hotel sector maintained an 81.8% occupancy rate in Q1 2026 with average room rates declining marginally to PHP 8,034 per night, while foreign tourist arrivals reached 1.8 million in the quarter, up nearly 9% year-on-year. Rising jet fuel costs and airline route suspensions pose headwinds, but the sector's fundamentals remain supported by sustained corporate demand, resilient luxury segment performance at 86% occupancy, and government efforts to boost domestic tourism and target international markets including China, Korea, and India.
Ten-year conduit loans have declined dramatically from 95.6% of conduit loan count in 2019 to just 12.3% in 2026, while five-year loans have become the dominant format in the CMBS market. Median 10-year conduit spreads tightened from 301 basis points in 2023 to 201 basis points in 2026, suggesting the remaining market reflects more selective underwriting rather than pricing that is prohibitively wide.
Walker & Dunlop analysis of Deutsche GRI findings identifies disciplined capital deployment, residential dominance, bifurcated office markets, and tightening financing conditions as key themes reshaping European real estate.
Analysis of how distributions to paid-in capital (DPI) has emerged as a key liquidity metric for commercial real estate fund investors, with smaller funds outperforming larger peers in capital returns during the current constrained market environment.
Cushman & Wakefield analyzes how massive AI infrastructure bond issuance by tech hyperscalers is competing for fixed-income capital with CRE debt markets, raising financing costs and lender selectivity across commercial real estate sectors.
Total outstanding commercial real estate debt reached $5.1 trillion through Q1 2026, with banks holding $1.91 trillion (37.4% of income-producing debt), followed by GSEs at $1.16 trillion (22.7%) and insurance companies at $808 billion (15.9%), while securitized debt comprised $771 billion (15.1%). Key findings included securitized balances rising 8.6% year-over-year, banks growing 4.1% year-over-year in the income-producing segment, and near-term maturities of $311 billion and $186 billion concentrated among banks and securitized lenders respectively through 2026, with approximately $1.7 trillion of debt maturing in 2031 and beyond.
Commercial property auctions offer certainty, speed, and transparency that attract investors during periods of market uncertainty and interest rate volatility.
Transaction activity slowed in 1H26 amid cautious financing, but investor demand for institutional-grade logistics assets remains resilient.
Private credit moves toward core as banks retreat and refinancing needs rise.
Real estate lending and insurance capital opportunities in a reset market.
Lisney's Q1 2026 update on the Irish commercial property investment market.
Examines reasons for institutional investors to consider real estate debt, the second largest of real estate's four quadrants at ~$4.5 trillion in the US and Europe.
CRETI year-end report: $16.7B invested in proptech in 2025 (+67.9% YoY), 77% structured as debt/PE, AI as baseline expectation, Europe softening while the Middle East emerges.
W. P. Carey's Tyler Swann on three drivers of 2026 sale-leaseback growth: lower 10-year Treasury (~4%), trade-policy clarity enabling long leases, and accelerating private-equity M&A.
Institutional research framing net lease as an asset class between fixed income and real estate: bond-like income, inflation protection, low default rates, and large untapped sale-leaseback supply.
Investment-bank net lease market update covering transaction trends, sale-leaseback activity and capital flows into the net lease sector.
Argues public REITs, trading at discounts to NAV, deserve a renewed 10-20% portfolio allocation versus private equity and private credit alternatives.
SFR enters 2025 well-positioned: structured capital markets rebounded in 2024, rent growth settled to pre-pandemic trends, and loan distress negligible.
CRETI monthly note: February 2025 proptech raised $544M across 32 rounds (median $9.8M), with debt at 41.7% of total funding and early-stage VC focused on AI-driven solutions.
CBRE IM projects global listed real estate can outperform broad equities in 2025 via accelerating earnings, favorable capital access and range-bound yields.
RMI report offering replicable solutions for real estate investors to move beyond compliance toward integrated decarbonization strategies that increase asset value.
CBRE capital-markets piece outlining MH/RV investment approaches (REITs, direct ownership, mortgage-backed securities) with sector performance context.
CRETI's 2024 proptech funding report analyzing the sector's shift toward financial discipline and profitability across construction, residential, multifamily and office, by tech category and geography.
ULI-backed strategies helped this coastal California locale build its economic base on industry. Now, a proposed AI-era manufacturing building and a massive new housing plan are poised to test that strategy—and reshape the town.
Supporters of travel trailers, Park Model RVs, and tiny homes say they offer a faster, less expensive path to housing people experiencing homelessness. The challenge is navigating building codes, zoning restrictions, and infrastructure costs.
Capital Markets Are Finding Their FootingOn the Spot with Steve Williams and Keith Darin After several years of elevated interest rates, tighter lending standards, and The post Capital Markets with Keith Darin – June 2026 appeared first on Capright .
Will McIntosh and Shaun Moura, writing for the NAIOP Research Foundation, look at new capital markets and real estate data to analyze the current debt and equity landscape. The post US Capital Market and CRE Trends: H2 2025 appeared first on AFIRE .
Five-year conduit loans have become the dominant structure in CMBS issuance, rising from 3.1% of loan count in 2019 to 91.0% by 2026, though this shift reflects market preference for shorter duration rather than aggressive pricing. Spreads have remained disciplined post-2023, stabilizing in the high-200s basis points across property types, with multifamily pricing most tightly (263 basis points in 2026) and lodging most widely (319 basis points in 2026), indicating that lenders continue to differentiate sharply by collateral quality and sector risk despite the structural shift toward five-year terms.
This is a market report published by JLL in March 2026 covering capital markets dynamics in the Netherlands during the first quarter of 2026, with a focus on Amsterdam and broader European market context.
This is a market report published by Savills in November 2025 covering the office investment market in Bristol, UK. The report is part of a series tracking regional office investment activity in the United Kingdom.
This is a market report published by CBRE on September 30, 2025 presenting investment market figures for Norway in the third quarter of 2025. The report covers capital markets activity and includes data for the Oslo market and broader Norway region.
The JLL Nordic Outlook Report Autumn 2025 examines how Nordic institutional strength creates enduring value in the region's real estate market, with particular emphasis on Stockholm's top European innovation ranking. The report notes that since February 2025, increased global uncertainty stemming from shifts in the world order has prompted investors to reassess risk and seek stability in regions with proven institutional strength, potentially benefiting Europe's relative position.
This is a real estate market outlook and forecast report published by CBRE on February 7, 2025, covering the Norway real estate market with focus on capital markets and economic factors, with geographic emphasis on Oslo and broader Norway within Europe.
This is a market outlook and forecast report published by CBRE on December 31, 2024, covering the Netherlands real estate market with projections for 2025. The report addresses multiple sectors including capital markets, office, retail, industrial, multifamily, and hospitality, with geographic focus on Amsterdam and the Netherlands within Europe.
Irish commercial real estate investment reached €814 million across 41 transactions in Q4 2025, with the living sector leading activity at 38% of turnover driven by record student accommodation deals, while retail rebounded strongly at 27% and international investors (particularly UK and German buyers) accounted for 80% of activity. The 2025 full year saw €2.44 billion invested across 122 transactions broadly in line with 2024, though deals over €50 million declined as a proportion of turnover from earlier quarters, and Dublin dominated with 78% of quarterly activity.
This is a capital markets report published by Colliers at the end of Q4 2025 covering Ireland, with a focus on Dublin and the broader European context.
Belgium's office capital markets saw investment volume exceed €1 billion in 2025, driven by core+ transactions and an atypical asset disposal, with private wealth investors expanding their deal activity across all asset segments. Prime office yields remained unchanged in Brussels and Flanders pending additional reference transactions to establish new market benchmarks.
This is a capital markets report published by Colliers in September 2025 covering the third quarter of 2025, with focus on Ireland and Dublin. The report appears to address capital markets activity and trends in the Irish commercial real estate market.
Lisney's Q3 2025 Investment Report documents Irish commercial real estate activity, which reached €698m across 34 transactions, with the living sector rebounding to lead activity at 37% of turnover for the first time since early 2023, followed by offices at 35% and industrial at 13%. Larger deals over €50m accounted for 54% of quarterly turnover, French investors remained particularly active at 30% of turnover, and Dublin dominated with 96% of total investment activity, while off-market transactions comprised 51% of the quarter's deals.
Savills' Q1 2025 Ireland Investment Market report analyzes €542.5 million in transaction volumes across 25 deals with an average deal size of €21.7 million, more than triple Q1 2024 but 28% below the five-year average, driven primarily by Realty Income's €220 million acquisition of Oaktree's retail parks portfolio. Retail dominated market share at 50%, followed by hotel at 16% and offices at 15%, with institutional buyers accounting for 69% of acquisitions while prime sector yields remained unchanged from Q4 2023, and investment volumes outside Dublin exceeded those within Dublin at 54% versus 46%.
This Savills report reviews Ireland's commercial real estate investment market in 2024 and provides a 2025 outlook, analyzing yield stabilization, deal volumes of €2.5 billion across 115 transactions, and sector performance including retail's 42% market share and office's 21% share. The document projects that income growth rather than yield compression will drive returns in 2025, expects new supply of offices and private rental sector housing to fall approximately 65% while logistics declines 12%, and forecasts strong refinancing activity despite some distressed opportunities as interest rates remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels.
This is a market outlook and forecast report published by CBRE on December 31, 2024, covering the Ireland real estate market with a focus on capital markets activity, including coverage of Dublin and broader Irish geography within the European and UK contexts.
BNP Paribas Real Estate provides quarterly market reports analyzing the Berlin commercial real estate investment market, with recent data showing transaction volumes ranging from approximately €420 million in Q1 2026 to €3.55 billion in 2024. The reports track investment activity across Berlin's property sector and position the city as a leading German investment location, while noting market conditions shifted from strong performance in 2021-2022 to more challenging environments in 2023-2024 before recovery in 2025-2026.
Germany's commercial real estate investment market recorded €8.9 billion in transaction volume during Q1 2026, a 12 percent increase year-over-year, driven primarily by single-asset deals outside the seven major metropolitan areas while yields remained stable despite rising government bond yields compressing risk premiums. The document attributes this modest positive momentum to improved economic conditions compared to 2022, broader investor participation across asset classes (led by Living at 28 percent of volume), and ongoing deal completion from transactions initiated in 2025, though geopolitical tensions and rising financing costs have created cautious sentiment among some market participants.
French commercial real estate investment volumes reached 1.94 billion euros in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 47 percent decline from the same period in 2025 and the lowest level since 2010, driven by political instability in late 2025 and geopolitical tensions in Iran that dampened investor confidence. Across asset classes, offices recorded 711 million euros, retail 895 million euros, and logistics 225 million euros, with the report noting that price adjustments by sellers and approaching refinancing deadlines are necessary conditions for market normalization, while bond market volatility reaching levels unseen since 2022 is expected to have full impact on investment volumes only in the second half of 2026.
Munich's investment market achieved €2.56 billion in transaction volume during 2025, with 44% or €1.1 billion concentrated in the fourth quarter, driven largely by two major Signa property sales (Oberpollinger and Corbinian); small and medium-sized deals under €100 million increased 15% compared to 2024 and reached €1.4 billion. Prime yields shifted modestly, with logistics assets rising 25 basis points to 4.50%, while retail high street and office sectors remained flat at 3.45% and 4.20% respectively.
Portugal's real estate investment market closed 2025 with total investment reaching 2.7 billion euros, an 11 percent increase compared with 2024, with logistics emerging as the strongest performer at 114 percent growth year-on-year. Economic fundamentals remain solid, with GDP growth projected at 2.3 percent for 2026 and unemployment at 5.9 percent, supported by strong labour market conditions and EU Recovery and Resilience Facility funding.
French corporate real estate investment reached 13.7 billion euros in 2025, representing an 8% increase from 2024, with offices accounting for 50% of total investment volumes while political and economic uncertainty constrains broader market recovery. The document projects investment growth of approximately 10% annually over 2026-2027, reaching 15 billion euros in 2026 and 17 billion in 2027, contingent on downward adjustments in asset valuations and clarification of fiscal policy following upcoming elections.
Madrid's office market recorded take-up of 147,500 square meters in Q4 2025, with annual 2025 take-up around 530,000 square meters in line with pre-Covid levels, while prime rent closed at €43/sqm/month with expected continued increases in 2026 due to limited high-quality supply. Spain's total office investment in 2025 reached approximately €2.4 billion, with Madrid accounting for 67% and Barcelona 28%, though nearly €500 million involved conversions to residential or tourism use, predominantly in Madrid.
This is the 45th edition of Cushman & Wakefield's MarketBeat Portugal report, covering economic forecasts and commercial real estate sector analysis for autumn 2025. The document presents Moody's Analytics forecasts indicating moderate Portuguese economic growth of 1.7% GDP in 2025, with private consumption rising 2.9%, investment growing 5.3%, inflation at 2.4%, and unemployment declining to 6.1%, while longer-term projections (2026–2027) show continued gradual acceleration with GDP growth of 2.0–2.1% and unemployment falling to 5.2% by 2027.
Portuguese commercial real estate investment reached €1,257 million in the first half of 2025, representing 70% growth year-on-year, with retail accounting for 47% of total volume invested. The economy is forecast to grow 1.7% in 2025 followed by 2.6% in 2026, while prime yields stand at 5.00% for offices, 4.00% for high street retail, 5.50% for logistics, and 6.75% for retail parks as of Q2 2025.
Portugal's commercial real estate investment market recorded €1.23 billion in total volume during the first half of 2025, representing a 69% increase compared to H1 2024, with retail emerging as the leading sector at €616 million followed by hospitality at €330 million. Cross-border capital dominated activity at 76% of Q2 2025 investment volume, with investors from Spain, France, and the United Kingdom remaining active, while capital from Germany and the United States has been absent from recent transactions due to broader macroeconomic pressures.
Berlin's real estate investment market recorded €986 million in transaction volume during Q1 2025, representing a 116% increase compared to Q1 2024, with the market regaining its top position nationally from Munich; the surge was driven largely by the €400 million-plus sale of the Upper West to the Schoeller Group family office, supplemented by increased activity in medium-sized transactions. Net prime yields remained stable at 4.25% for office and logistics properties and 3.70% for premium retail, with office properties dominating 67.5% of investment volume and central locations accounting for 78.8% of transactions.
Frankfurt's investment market achieved a transaction volume of just over €1.6 billion in 2024, representing a 36% increase from 2023 despite falling 73% short of the long-term average of €6 billion, with office properties dominating at 62.1% of market share and generating approximately €1.0 billion in investment. Net prime yields stabilized at 4.50% for office, 3.75% for retail, and 4.25% for logistics properties, while Subcentres and the City Centre accounted for approximately 61% and 30.5% of investment activity respectively, with deals in the over €50 million segment rising to 62% of the market.
The Cushman & Wakefield Sweden MarketBeat report for Q4 2025 documents that Swedish commercial real estate investment volume reached SEK 61.5 billion in Q4, nearly flat year-over-year, with full-year 2025 volume totaling SEK 171.2 billion (a 26% increase versus 2024), driven by robust domestic and Nordic investor appetite and led by residential sector activity at 22% of transaction volume. The Swedish economy has entered a recovery phase supported by expansionary fiscal measures, with GDP growth at 2.6% year-over-year in Q3 2025, unemployment at 8.2%, and prime yields stable across most segments at or near 3.85–4.85%, signaling sustained investor confidence despite elevated but declining unemployment expectations.
This Knight Frank publication surveys Kraków's real estate market across office, retail, warehouse, hotel, residential, and investment sectors as of 2025. The office market section reports that Kraków holds 1.83 million square meters of office stock with a 19% vacancy rate, achieved 267,000 square meters in leasing demand in 2024 (the highest among Polish regional cities), and has 52,000 square meters under construction, with Class A rents ranging from EUR 14–18 per square meter per month.