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Chief Economist: America At 250: Shorter Recessions, Complicated Downturns
Economic commentary on recession duration and complexity trends in the U.S. economy.
EconomyGlobalUnited States
Updated 1 month ago
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Economic commentary on recession duration and complexity trends in the U.S. economy.
Consumer inflation expectations have become unanchored from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.67% in July 2026—the highest since September 2023—and three-year expectations reaching 3.34%, the highest in four years, according to the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations released in the article. Core PCE inflation has accelerated to 4.1% annualized on a six-month basis as of May 2026, while the article notes that unanchored inflation expectations could become a self-reinforcing psychological phenomenon if consumers and businesses adjust wage and pricing behavior accordingly.
U.S. new light vehicle sales rose 0.5% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to 4.22 million units, but remain down 2.8% for the first half of 2026 compared to a year ago, with the market characterized by decades of stagnation and steep plunges interrupted by sharp declines. General Motors and Ford suffered double-digit percentage drops in Q2 deliveries, while Hyundai-Kia and other non-traditional automakers gained share in what the author describes as a zero-sum market where major U.S. automakers have pursued upscale pricing strategies that have ceded volume to competitors, particularly Japanese and Korean manufacturers.
The document reports that the six-month Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4%, with the government selling $84 billion of six-month Treasury bills at an investment rate of 3.97%, up from 3.80% two weeks prior, signaling that bond markets expect multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes within the next six months. The article argues that the bond market is clearly telling the Fed to proceed with rate increases, as evidenced by the 2-year Treasury yield surging 76 basis points since early February to 4.14%, and that banks are raising CD yields above 4% in response to incoming economic data.
Analysis of how geopolitical risks are reshaping real estate investor behavior and market sentiment across European property markets.
Analysis of how European commercial real estate has performed historically as an inflation hedge compared to other asset classes.
Cushman & Wakefield examines commercial real estate exposure to inflation dynamics across European markets, analyzing regional variations in inflationary causes and impacts.
Knight Frank commentary on UK political developments and their economic implications for the real estate market.
Analysis of how Middle East geopolitical tensions are affecting economic conditions and commercial real estate markets across the Asia-Pacific region.
Cushman & Wakefield research examining the economic and commercial real estate impacts of Middle East geopolitical tensions on European markets.
Research examining the interconnections between Middle East geopolitical tensions, energy market dynamics, inflationary pressures, and their effects on commercial real estate markets.
Cushman & Wakefield analysis examining how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are shaping economic conditions and real estate market dynamics across Europe.
Aberdeen Investment's monthly macro outlook video examines global growth trends and explores potential market underestimation of risks from oil price volatility and artificial intelligence disruption.
Oxford Economics research models how inflation and bond-yield shocks affect European real estate returns across major cities.
Analysis of how artificial intelligence will influence commercial real estate demand and returns across sectors, with particular attention to both beneficiaries and challenged property types.
Capital Economics analysis examines how potential energy cost increases from Iran conflict may affect US commercial real estate returns through occupier margin pressure and rental demand impacts.
Analysis of how New York City's proposed property tax increase reflects broader municipal budget pressures affecting major U.S. cities' commercial real estate sectors.
Analysis examining the structural relationship between housing supply constraints and affordability across different price segments in the U.S. residential market.
AEW research examines elevated transition risk premiums in European real estate driven by higher costs and improved data availability.
Research perspective examining the Bank of Japan's policy impact on Japanese real estate markets and investment opportunities.
China remains a manufacturing leader, adapting its industrial strategy while other Asian nations find opportunities in complementary sectors. Discover more.
John Burns Research and Consulting examines the factors deterring homebuyer activity in the current market environment.
The share of mortgages with below-3% interest rates remained flat at 19.5% in Q1 2026 after declining steadily from a peak of 24.6% in Q1 2021, while combined below-4% mortgages fell only 20 basis points quarter-over-quarter, marking the smallest decline since their share began falling in 2022. The document attributes the stalling unwinding of the "lock-in effect" to homeowners retaining ultra-low mortgages that offer effectively free borrowing in real terms given inflation above 3%, though the stall could represent either a temporary blip or a longer-term freezing of the housing market.
Invesco presents a three-question framework for real estate investors to distinguish material macroeconomic developments from transient market noise.
Research analyzing the economic contributions and growth impacts of commercial real estate development and construction activity across U.S. office, industrial, warehouse, and retail sectors.
Article exploring how developers can leverage stacked incentives and tax credits for projects in underserved markets.
Research directors and Distinguished Fellows discuss trends shaping the short-term and long-term outlook for commercial real estate in Canada and the U.S.
Analysis of multifamily housing's economic impact and contribution to the U.S. economy.
Nareit economist analyzes economic growth trends in the first half of 2019 and their impact on commercial real estate markets and REIT performance.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun discusses the actual impact of distressed properties on the housing market.
NAR economists analyze Federal Reserve policy implications for mortgage rates, highlighting inflation dynamics, rental trends, productivity gains, and energy market factors affecting real estate financing.
The article examines the U.S. federal government's fiscal situation in Q1 2026, reporting that federal interest payments reached $305 billion for the quarter while tax receipts fell to $939 billion, with the ratio of interest payments to tax receipts worsening to 32.5%, and the Debt-to-GDP ratio edging up to 122.6%. The author argues that rather than implementing fiscal reforms, the Federal Reserve and government are pursuing a strategy of allowing higher nominal economic growth and moderate inflation (3-5% range) to gradually reduce the debt burden, despite inflation accelerating above the Fed's 2% target and core measures reaching their worst levels since mid-2023.
KBRA examines how tariff uncertainty and related economic pressures may impact structured finance markets and credit conditions.
The explosion of AI data centers and the continued electrification of automobiles and other products have greatly increased demand for electricity, sparking renewed interest in producing nuclear power.
Oxford Economics examines the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and real estate investment performance across major U.S. metropolitan areas.
Oxford Economics examines the effects of Trump's presidency on the US commercial real estate sector, analyzing policy implications and market impacts across property types.
Explores how next-generation island destination communities should be structured as integrated economic platforms rather than traditional hotel-plus-real-estate models, with resorts functioning as broader economic infrastructure.
Analysis of business rates implications and policy changes announced in the UK Autumn Budget 2025.
Analysis of UK business rates policy changes and property revaluation implications within the 2025 and 2026 budget cycle.
Analysis of the interconnected dynamics between property taxation and extreme weather events in commercial real estate markets.
Research examining industrial real estate through the lens of economic globalization, outsourcing, and transnational property dynamics using global economic base theory.
Freddie Mac analysis examining spending patterns between homeowners with locked mortgage rates and renters facing rising housing costs.
Analysis examining how tariff policies affect construction expenses and economics across Canadian commercial real estate development.
This piece was originally published on Forbes on June 8, 2026. Gen Z is coming of age in an economy where the traditional path to prosperity no longer works, and instead of giving up, they’re beginning to build new ones. For 70 years, the American Dream followed a predictable sequence: school, job, promotion,…
Newmark thought leadership examining how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act impacts commercial real estate opportunities and challenges across multiple property sectors.
Newmark analysis identifying geographic markets and conditions where U.S. office space demonstrates strength and resilience.
Analysis of how U.S. infrastructure investments are driving growth in the industrial real estate sector.
The document discusses commercial real estate opportunities in an environment where consumers perceive inflation easing despite energy-driven price pressures, falling real wages, and uneven recovery signals. The chief economist argues that the real CRE opportunity involves identifying assets with durable income growth before the market reprices in what is termed "Cheerios Arbitrage.
John Burns Research and Consulting's 2026 Executive Housing Summit gathered 150 housing industry executives (27% private equity, 18% banks/lenders, 10% land developers, and others) in Laguna Beach to discuss market conditions and strategic positioning. The summit's eight key takeaways indicated housing executives maintain cautious outlooks with split sentiment through 2029, entitled land development has become the top risk-adjusted investment, equity raising has slowed while debt and land banking gain market share, entry-level buyers face affordability pressures while affluent segments show strong demand, rental policy tailwinds exist alongside technology scaling opportunities, and artificial intelligence requires multiyear data cleanup efforts before strategic adoption.
Quick take on the rising importance of capital expenditure, particularly AI-related investment, in shaping inflation dynamics.
Passed unanimously out of the Senate Banking Committee, the ROAD to Housing Act embraces solutions to the housing affordability crisis like zoning reform and streamlining rules to encourage more homebuilding. For the first time since the foreclosure crisis, U.S. Congress has taken meaningful action to make housing…
BGO chief economist Ryan Severino argues weak job growth does not automatically signal recession.
Half the committee is now willing to discuss another rate hike this year.
Productivity gains rather than employment are driving output, with implications for CRE.
Karen Pence , Ben Ranish , and Michael Suher Mortgage servicing right (MSR) valuations decrease when mortgage default and prepayment rates increase, as is generally the case when the economy enters into recession. To estimate how large these MSR valuation declines could be for the banking sector in a severe…
Anna Tranfaglia and Erin Troland Historic swings in rents during the pandemic have driven increased interest in research on the financial impacts of rising rents on households. However, compared to homeowners with a mortgage, data on renters are scarce, limiting researchers’ ability to analyze the 28 percent of…
23 April 2026 There is real merit in making changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and Negative Gearing in Australia. Given we have a national housing crisis, this debate needs to include the State and Territory Governments, and it is essential to also bring Stamp Duty, Land Tax and the various Foreign…
Stewart Rubin and Marshall Swett of New York Life Real Estate Investors explores how tariffs they could signal a fundamental departure from the longstanding US commitments. The post Trade Winds Redrawn: US Tariffs and Commercial Real Estate appeared first on AFIRE .
The CEO Perspective, by Michael Brooks March 11, 2026 Spring Economic Statement: Industry Priorities Each year, I try to speak to at least half of our Executive Members to understand, up to the moment, what’s going on in their business, […] The post Spring Economic Statement: Industry Priorities appeared first on…
Retiree discretionary spending is growing, driven by increased leisure demand and wealth transfer, shaping the future of consumer real estate.