The industry's own research.
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Marcus & Millichap projects net absorption of about 240,000 units against 270,000 completions, lifting vacancy 10 basis points to 4.7%, with units under construction down 53% from the 2023 peak.
The forecast expects office space demand to rise on net in almost every major market in 2026, with many investors viewing the sector as having passed its greatest challenges.
CRED iQ reports the overall CMBS distress rate rose to 11.70 percent in December 2025, a third consecutive monthly increase, with a delinquency rate of 8.89 percent and a specially serviced rate of 11.15 percent.
U.S. housing inventory expanded in December 2025, marking the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, with active listings up 12.1 percent versus December 2024. National inventory levels remain 12.5 percent below typical 2017 to 2019 norms.
J.P. Morgan's 2026 commercial real estate outlook sees multifamily and industrial staying strong, retail steady and office recovering in select metros, with improving transaction volumes despite macro headwinds.
KBRA reports the delinquency rate among KBRA-rated US private label CMBS decreased to 7.7 percent in December 2025 from 7.8 percent in November, while the distress rate ticked up to 10.6 percent.
Produced with Savills, this CompStak report finds that large bulk warehouse assets are leading the industrial recovery, with leasing demand and rent performance concentrated in the largest size segments.
The Office of the CIO outlook highlights macro events on the horizon in 2026, including Federal Reserve leadership changes, tariffs and US trade policy uncertainty, and the US midterm elections. The views draw on insights from more than 270 portfolio companies and roughly 13,000 real estate assets.
The U.S. industrial vacancy rate reached 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the Midwest tightest at 4.9 percent and the South and West at 7.9 percent. The report details supply, demand and pricing across national markets.
B+E's Q4 2025 net lease cap rate report provides a real-time snapshot of pricing, supply and investor demand across retail, industrial and specialty sectors. QSR properties averaged a 5.68 percent cap rate with 13.4 years of remaining lease term, while convenience store cap rates sat at 5.62 percent.
The quarterly report covers U.S. apartment demand, supply deliveries, occupancy and rent growth. It assesses national multifamily fundamentals and capital markets activity.
The forecast projects US industrial net absorption increasing through the first half of 2026 to 154.8 million sq ft and ending the full year at 345.9 million sq ft as economic conditions stabilize. Demand strengthened in the second half of 2025 with 128.7 million sq ft of net absorption.
The Q1 2026 Apartment Update reported monthly effective rent advancing 1.7 percent over the trailing four quarters, accelerating from 1.2 percent growth in the prior year.
Newmark reports U.S. capital markets momentum strengthened through year-end 2025 as improving liquidity and active debt markets sustained a rebound in transaction activity. Institutional investment rose 23 percent year-over-year, while 547 billion dollars in loans maturing between 2025 and 2027 remain potentially troubled, led by office and multifamily.
Nareit's monthly statistical publication provides a snapshot of the REIT industry, including data from the FTSE Nareit U.S. Real Estate Index Series and the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Real Estate Index Series as of December 31, 2025.
Lument summarizes findings from its 2026 senior living survey, outlining merger and acquisition expectations and investor sentiment across the seniors housing sector.
The Boulder Group reported single tenant net lease cap rate stabilization continued in the fourth quarter of 2025, with overall cap rates increasing one basis point to 6.81 percent and retail cap rates compressing to 6.55 percent. High-credit retailers commanded sub-6 percent cap rates while challenged tenants traded above 7 percent.
The Q4 2025 office report closes the year with trophy properties outperforming historical norms while overall leasing remains below pre pandemic levels and recovery varies widely by market.
New home sales among the 50 top-selling master-planned communities declined just 3 percent versus the pace set in 2024. The Villages led with 3,611 sales, up 13 percent, while Florida accounted for roughly 42 percent of top-50 sales and Texas around 32 percent.
U.S. office inventory declined for a fifth consecutive quarter and is down 0.7 percent from its peak of 5.5 billion square feet. National vacancy was mostly flat over the year, rising just 5 basis points since the first quarter of 2025.
The quarterly snapshot argues a new real estate cycle is taking shape as investors enter 2026 with improving fundamentals, returning liquidity and growing conviction. Value growth is reemerging across asset classes, supported by strengthening rent outlooks and more active lending markets.
The January 2026 VTS Office Demand Index reports tech sector office demand surged in 2025 to become the primary national growth driver, with Seattle and San Francisco each posting year-over-year VODI gains near 50 percent, up 46 and 45 percent respectively.
PGIM Real Estate views valuations as near cyclical lows globally, positioning 2026 as a compelling investment vintage amid supply shortages, rising grade-A rents and structural demand. Investor surveys point to a pick-up in transaction volume across all sectors.
BGO chief economist Ryan Severino presents the firm's 2026 global outlook, projecting modest growth near 2 percent with moderating inflation and easing central banks. Industrial, housing and data centers are highlighted as the strongest investment opportunities.
Newmark's fourth quarter 2025 multifamily capital markets report reviews transaction volume, pricing, debt availability and investor demand for U.S. apartment assets.
Trepp reports the CMBS delinquency rate rose 4 basis points to 7.30 percent in December 2025, with lodging up 44 basis points to 6.61 percent and office retreating 37 basis points to 11.31 percent.
The quarterly report tracks U.S. shopping center leasing, absorption and rent trends. It covers supply, demand and pricing conditions across national retail markets.
B+E analyzes quick-service restaurant net lease investment trends using its proprietary 1031 trade database. The report tracks QSR on-market supply, cap rate movement and remaining lease term heading into 2026.
The outlook projects commercial real estate lending rising to 805 billion dollars in 2026, a 38 percent increase over the 583 billion seen in 2025. Peak maturity volumes of 875 billion are forecast for 2026, keeping refinancing risk elevated even as multifamily fundamentals improve.
Savills reports the U.S. industrial market has stopped weakening and is beginning a slow, uneven transition toward recovery. The report covers supply, demand and pricing alongside ports, e-commerce and manufacturing demand drivers.
The global outlook synthesized the United States and Canada, Europe and Asia Pacific editions, offering a cross-regional view of investment and development prospects for 2026.
Newmark's fourth quarter 2025 industrial report tracks net absorption, vacancy, leasing and investment sales activity. Demand continued to favor modern, efficient facilities as occupiers upgraded supply chains.
TPG CEO Jon Winkelried surveys the 2026 macro outlook across policy, interest rates, and AI, and explains why he sees real estate as one of the more interesting investing opportunities ahead.
Principal characterized the CRE cycle as having moved into recovery with returns diverging sharply across sectors, regions and strategies, signaling an alpha-driven environment requiring careful asset and market selection.
The first quarter 2026 U.S. outlook sets out BGO's house views on the economy and commercial real estate sectors. The report assesses fundamentals across industrial, housing, retail and office as the cycle turns.
Annual net absorption fell from 20.5 million sq ft in 2024 to 852,722 sq ft in 2025 despite more than 12 million sq ft of tenant growth in the fourth quarter. Deliveries in 2025 totaled 253.6 million sq ft, down 52 percent from the 526 million sq ft record set in 2023.
CompStak examines sublease pricing dynamics and rollover risk across the U.S. office market, quantifying the discount of sublease space to direct space and the lease rollover exposure facing landlords.
Invesco argues listed real estate enters 2026 with improving fundamentals, attractive valuations and sector-specific opportunities. Restrained development pipelines and accelerating growth expectations provide a favorable setting for active managers.
Brookfield makes the case that asset-based finance remains underpenetrated by private capital, but that this is about to change. The piece looks beyond direct lending to the broader private credit opportunity set.
An ICSC survey found nearly 9 in 10 consumers planned to shop in the final days before December 25. The data underscores the durability of last-minute holiday retail demand.
The December 2025 RCA CPPI release reports the National All-Property Index up 2.4 percent from a year earlier, with recent momentum stronger as the annualized change averaged 9.7 percent over the prior three months. The indexes cover the major property sectors and US metros.
KKR's 2026 Private Markets Outlook explores high-grading portfolios for quality and resilience. It lays out the firm's latest cross-asset views spanning private equity, infrastructure, real estate and credit.
KKR's RIA survey finds that private market investments no longer fit the 'alternative' label given how many advisors now use them in portfolio construction. It reports that the share of RIAs planning to increase allocations to private real estate rose sharply year over year.
The monthly summary aggregates Morningstar DBRS rating actions across North American CMBS transactions for November 2025. It is part of the firm's recurring surveillance reporting on the sector.
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group projects the U.S. housing market regaining momentum into 2026 with total housing starts near 1.3 million annually and multifamily construction leveling out as supply and demand rebalance, while the 30-year fixed mortgage stays above 6 percent through much of the forecast.
Nareit's 2026 outlook addresses persistent public-private and REIT-versus-equity valuation divergences, arguing that past cycles suggest the coming convergences will favor REIT outperformance after a volatile 2025.
Goldman Sachs Research's base case is that data center occupancy peaks around 93% next year as AI demand surges, examining whether new supply can keep pace with hyperscaler buildouts.
Brookfield's credit outlook contends that continued investor appetite for private credit underscores confidence in the asset class. The piece makes the case for disciplined underwriting and a focus on asset quality across market cycles.
Jason Thomas argues that major tech companies have shifted from asset-light to capital-intensive models due to AI infrastructure investment, yet retain valuations built on the old model. He contends that when these companies acquire $100 million in data-center assets, shareholders are effectively asked to pay far more at current price-to-book ratios.
Ares argues real estate is entering a new phase, with liquidity returning and values stabilizing across key sectors. Structural trends from AI-driven infrastructure to evolving housing demand are creating entry points for investors at an inflection point.
The November report finds affordability reshaping where Americans can buy, with buyers increasingly finding opportunities in smaller traditionally affordable refuge markets that have seen notable growth in price per square foot.
CRED iQ records a November 2025 CMBS distress rate of 11.6 percent, with non-performing matured loans comprising the largest share of the distressed universe and office exhibiting the highest sector stress.
Zillow forecasts U.S. home values rising 1.2 percent in 2026 and existing home sales increasing 4.3 percent to 4.26 million, with multifamily rents projected to rise just 0.3 percent and single-family rents up 2.3 percent as affordability improves.
RealPage identifies 11 of the 50 largest apartment markets expecting effective asking rent gains of 3 percent or more in 2026, led by Miami at 3.8 percent, Seattle at 3.7 percent and Los Angeles at 3.2 percent.
The report tracks U.S. self storage street rates, occupancy and supply trends across major metropolitan markets.
The report discusses bifurcation emerging among metropolitan office markets and the continued growth of coworking.
Advertised asking rents slipped 0.9 percent, or 16 dollars, to 1,737 dollars in December, marking the weakest monthly performance since the global financial crisis.
Brookfield's annual investment outlook argues that 2025 was the year the real estate market reopened and 2026 will reward tactical investors as liquidity rebounds, with focus areas spanning housing, logistics, data centers and hospitality across the equity and credit portions of the capital stack.
KBRA's November 2025 report tracks delinquency and distress rates across KBRA-rated US private label CMBS, with continued pressure in the office and multifamily sectors.
HVS reviewed global lodging performance heading into 2026, noting resilient average daily rate and revenue per available room metrics alongside a survey in which 65 percent of top U.S. brokers expected improved deal conditions in the first half of 2026.