The industry's own research.
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The outlook projects commercial real estate lending rising to 805 billion dollars in 2026, a 38 percent increase over the 583 billion seen in 2025. Peak maturity volumes of 875 billion are forecast for 2026, keeping refinancing risk elevated even as multifamily fundamentals improve.
The monthly summary aggregates Morningstar DBRS rating actions across North American CMBS transactions for November 2025. It is part of the firm's recurring surveillance reporting on the sector.
CRED iQ records a November 2025 CMBS distress rate of 11.6 percent, with non-performing matured loans comprising the largest share of the distressed universe and office exhibiting the highest sector stress.
KBRA's November 2025 report tracks delinquency and distress rates across KBRA-rated US private label CMBS, with continued pressure in the office and multifamily sectors.
Third quarter GAAP net income was 72.6 million dollars and Distributable Earnings were 148.6 million dollars, with the company acquiring Fundamental, a 2.2 billion dollar net lease portfolio.
KBRA reports the delinquency rate among KBRA-rated US private label CMBS rose to 7.9 percent in October 2025, with 1.7 billion dollars in loans newly added to distress and multifamily seeing the highest new volume.
CRED iQ's third-quarter 2025 market update reviews CMBS distress trends and broader commercial real estate conditions across major property sectors.
The 3Q 2025 Board of Governors Sentiment Index rose 9.3 percent to 122.8 from 112.3 in 2Q 2025, reaching its highest level since 4Q 2024 and solidifying the market's recovery momentum.
KBRA reports the office delinquency rate decreased 90 basis points to 12.3 percent in September 2025, while overall KBRA-rated CMBS delinquency stood at 7.7 percent.
The Q3 snapshot reports US capital markets showing renewed momentum amid economic uncertainty, supported by strong liquidity and record-setting CMBS activity. It outlines forces shaping capital flows into year end.
Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased 47.1 billion dollars, or 1.0 percent, to 4.88 trillion dollars at the end of the second quarter of 2025. Multifamily mortgage debt rose 27.7 billion dollars to 2.19 trillion dollars.
CRED iQ reports the CMBS distress rate reached a record 11.8 percent, driven by maturity defaults and continued stress in the office sector.
The September 2025 US Capital Trends report examines shifting dynamics in commercial real estate lending, tracking transaction volumes, deal structures, liquidity conditions, and investor behavior across property types.
Second quarter GAAP net income was 129.8 million dollars and Distributable Earnings were 151.1 million dollars, with commercial real estate lending representing about half of the company's asset base.
The index surged 27.8 percent to 112.3 from 87.9 in 1Q 2025, returning above the neutral 100 baseline, with 86 percent of respondents expecting more borrower demand, up from 48 percent in the prior quarter.
The midyear update describes a resilient commercial real estate debt market in the first half of 2025, with higher issuance in data center sectors and traditional CMBS consistent with 2024. Maturity defaults remained tied to higher rates and office performance decline.
Trepp's Mid-Year 2025 publication highlights strong multifamily fundamentals despite signs of growing distress across other commercial real estate sectors.
CRED iQ records the CMBS distress rate climbing back to 11 percent, ending three consecutive monthly reductions as maturity pressures persist.
KBRA's May 2025 report details delinquency and distress trends across KBRA-rated US private label CMBS, including new loan additions to distress and notable resolutions.
CRED iQ reports the CMBS special servicing rate climbed to 9.9 percent as loans continued transferring to special servicing ahead of imminent default and maturity.
First quarter GAAP net income was 112.3 million dollars and Distributable Earnings were 156.3 million dollars, with commercial lending originations already surpassing the prior full year.
KBRA's CMBS Trend Watch reports year-over-year issuance doubled to 37.1 billion dollars through March 2025, alongside rating activity and surveillance trends across the sector.
CREFC's quarterly Compendium compiles data on the state of the CRE debt capital markets, including outstanding debt, issuance volumes and lending activity across the 6.2 trillion dollar sector.
The 2025 global outlook comprises in-depth research articulating distinct investment views across the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Mexico, as well as the private real estate credit markets globally.
TPG Real Estate leaders argue that ongoing dislocation in real estate credit markets, with a multitrillion-dollar CRE maturity wall, has created one of the best moments to be a real estate lender.
KKR discusses four ideas real estate credit investors need to know about today's markets, arguing that a scarcity of capital and rising transaction volume is creating the chance to earn equity-like returns on real estate debt.
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Ares' Q3 2025 credit monitor tracks renewed credit issuance, refinancing and repricing activity, and a pickup in M&A volumes globally. It assesses credit fundamentals across public and private markets amid an evolving macro backdrop.