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Existing home sales rose 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units in May 2026, reaching a five-month high as the first-time buyer share climbed to 35%, the highest since June 2020, according to National Association of Realtors data cited in this NAHB blog post. Despite the sales increase, inventory remained tight at 1.55 million units with a 4.5-month supply, mortgage rates held around 6.5% after rising over 50 basis points since late February, and the median existing home price reached $429,300, up 1.3% year-over-year for the 35th consecutive month of annual gains.

Mortgage application activity declined 5.5% month-over-month in May 2026 due to higher rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.54%, though adjustable-rate mortgages gained share to 9.0% of total applications as borrowers sought lower initial rates. Year-over-year, total mortgage applications remained 14.2% higher, with refinance applications up 26.4% and purchase applications rising 6.2%, while ARM applications increased 38.2% compared to May 2025.

The U.S. labor market showed continued resilience in May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000 jobs for the third consecutive month and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, while wage growth moderated to 3.4% year-over-year. Job gains concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, though residential construction employment declined by 33,300 jobs over the past 12 months, marking the fifteenth consecutive annual decline.

The median wage of construction payroll workers in 2025 was $61,370, exceeding the U.S. median of $50,980, with Chief Executive Officers earning the highest median wages in the industry at over $198,000. Among construction trades specifically, elevator installers and repairers topped the list with a median wage of $113,710, while carpenters, plumbers, and electricians all earned substantially above the national median, with wage variation generally correlating to required education, training, and expertise levels.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May 2026, up 7 basis points from April and 36 basis points since the Middle East conflict began, while the 15-year rate averaged 5.76%, also up 7 basis points monthly as elevated inflation and rising energy prices pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.47%. Persistently high inflation strained household budgets, causing the personal saving rate to fall to 2.6% in April, the lowest level since June 2022.

National house prices rose 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, the slowest annual appreciation since the second quarter of 2012, driven by higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Regional variation was pronounced: Puerto Rico led with 16.3% appreciation while Colorado recorded the largest decline at 2.4%, and among the 100 largest metro areas, annual appreciation ranged from −6.9% to +10.8%, with Midwest and Northeast metros outperforming while markets in Florida and Texas weakened.

In April 2026, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 41 states and the District of Columbia with a national gain of 115,000 jobs, while construction employment added 9,000 jobs nationwide with 32 states recording gains. State unemployment rates ranged from 2.2 percent in South Dakota to 6.2 percent in the District of Columbia, which experienced significant federal workforce reductions exceeding 300,000 positions in 2025.

Construction job openings in the United States increased slightly from 234,000 in March to 259,000 in April 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, with the construction job openings rate rising to 3% in April from 2.4% a year prior. The article notes that while overall economy job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, construction openings remain measurably lower than three years ago due to declines in housing construction activity, though recent nonresidential construction gains have provided some offset.

Single-family construction declined across all geographies in Q1 2026, with large metro core counties experiencing the sharpest pullback of 16.0% year-over-year, driven by elevated interest rates, rising material costs, and labor shortages, while multifamily construction expanded in most markets with large metro core counties leading at 20.8% growth. The data reflects a decade-long structural shift away from dense population centers toward smaller and outlying markets in single-family construction, while multifamily construction has recently begun regaining share in large metro core counties after a period of migration to smaller markets.

Private residential construction spending increased 0.8% in April 2026, driven primarily by gains in single-family and home improvement spending, with total private residential construction spending 1.7% higher than April 2025. Single-family construction spending rose 1.4% monthly but declined 2.9% year-over-year, while remodeling spending increased 0.4% monthly and was up 7.5% year-over-year, whereas multifamily construction spending edged down 0.3% in April but remained 1.1% higher than a year earlier.

John Burns Research and Consulting reviews homebuilder incentive strategies designed to boost sales without reducing base prices amid muted new home demand.
Cotality reported U.S. home price growth of 0.3 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent month-over-month in April 2026, with prices up 0.8 percent since the start of 2026. The firm expects home prices to rise 5.3 percent between April 2026 and April 2027.
Cotality's Home Price Index update ahead of the spring 2026 buying season showed home price growth rebalancing as affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates weighed on demand. The report tracks national and metro-level price movement.

The monthly Capital Trends report tracks U.S. transaction volumes, pricing and capital flows across property types, supporting investors, lenders and other market participants.

Redfin's early 2026 housing market update found buyers cautious and sellers returning, with agents anticipating a busier spring. The report tracks inventory, listing activity and buyer-seller dynamics nationally.

J.P. Morgan Global Research projects US house prices will stall near 0% growth in 2026, with home sales gradually improving as mortgage rates ease and builders use rate buydowns to clear inventory.

Morgan Stanley strategists lay out forecasts for mortgage rates and home prices in 2026 and 2027 and what they could mean for prospective homebuyers.
U.S. housing inventory expanded in December 2025, marking the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, with active listings up 12.1 percent versus December 2024. National inventory levels remain 12.5 percent below typical 2017 to 2019 norms.

New home sales among the 50 top-selling master-planned communities declined just 3 percent versus the pace set in 2024. The Villages led with 3,611 sales, up 13 percent, while Florida accounted for roughly 42 percent of top-50 sales and Texas around 32 percent.

BGO chief economist Ryan Severino presents the firm's 2026 global outlook, projecting modest growth near 2 percent with moderating inflation and easing central banks. Industrial, housing and data centers are highlighted as the strongest investment opportunities.
New condominium apartment sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area fell 60 percent in 2025 to just 1,599 units, the lowest annual total since 1991. A record 28 active condo projects totalling 7,243 units were cancelled during the year.

The first quarter 2026 U.S. outlook sets out BGO's house views on the economy and commercial real estate sectors. The report assesses fundamentals across industrial, housing, retail and office as the cycle turns.

Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group projects the U.S. housing market regaining momentum into 2026 with total housing starts near 1.3 million annually and multifamily construction leveling out as supply and demand rebalance, while the 30-year fixed mortgage stays above 6 percent through much of the forecast.
Ares argues real estate is entering a new phase, with liquidity returning and values stabilizing across key sectors. Structural trends from AI-driven infrastructure to evolving housing demand are creating entry points for investors at an inflection point.
The November report finds affordability reshaping where Americans can buy, with buyers increasingly finding opportunities in smaller traditionally affordable refuge markets that have seen notable growth in price per square foot.
Zillow forecasts U.S. home values rising 1.2 percent in 2026 and existing home sales increasing 4.3 percent to 4.26 million, with multifamily rents projected to rise just 0.3 percent and single-family rents up 2.3 percent as affordability improves.

Redfin's 2026 housing market predictions frame the year as a reset, with buyers gaining leverage amid rising inventory and persistent affordability constraints. The report forecasts price, sales and mortgage rate trends for the year ahead.

Goldman Sachs Research finds US housing affordability has declined sharply and estimates at least 3-4 million additional homes are needed to close the supply shortage and improve affordability.

Fannie Mae's October 2025 outlook details the Economic and Strategic Research Group's expectations for home sales, housing starts, home prices and mortgage rates amid elevated borrowing costs and affordability constraints.

Morgan Stanley analyzes why Fed rate cuts alone may not revive the US housing market, identifying the additional factors needed for a meaningful recovery.

Morgan Stanley examines how rising home prices, high mortgage rates and limited supply are reshaping US housing over the next decade and where investors may find growth.

Charter Keck Cramer's national report found the Build to Rent sector recorded a 378 percent increase in supply, adding 8,590 apartments across capital cities during FY2021 to FY2025, and identified 2024 as the cyclical trough.

McKinsey finds the US was short 8.2 million housing units in 2023, a gap that could grow to 9.6 million by 2035, and estimates closing it would require about $2.7 trillion of investment while potentially adding nearly $2 trillion to GDP. It identifies five themes for making housing more affordable and advancing economic mobility.

Cotality reported U.S. home prices increased 3.4 percent year-over-year in December 2024 and forecast a 4.1 percent year-over-year gain from December 2024 to December 2025. A slight month-over-month dip was anticipated for January 2025.

Morgan Stanley explores how higher mortgage rates and limited supply are reshaping affordability, and why homeownership may remain out of reach for many buyers.