What happened, and who moved.
Pending home sales ticked up as housing payments temporarily dipped down. U.S. pending home sales rose 1.3% from a week earlier to their highest level since the first half of May during the four weeks ending July 5. This data is seasonally adjusted. Homebuying demand picked up partly because of temporarily…
Morningstar DBRS released quarterly Canadian Housing Market Indicators providing updated data on residential market conditions.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% in June 2026, up 8 basis points from May and 44 basis points since late February, while the 15-year rate averaged 5.82%, driven by market pricing of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.48% in June but eased later in the month to around 4.44% following a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement that temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping.
The U.S. labor market added 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June 2026, the smallest gain since February, with downward revisions of 74,000 jobs to April and May reports indicating weaker underlying hiring momentum than initially reported. Residential construction employment declined 8,600 jobs in June and has shed 48,800 jobs over the past 12 months, marking the sixteenth consecutive month of annual decline, while the construction unemployment rate rose to 6.2%, the highest level since July 2021.
Private residential construction spending reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $930.2 billion in May 2026, up 0.3% from April and 1.8% from a year earlier, with remodeling spending driving the increase at 0.9% monthly and 8.1% annually while single-family construction declined 0.1% monthly and 4.0% annually. The data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows multifamily construction spending edged down 0.1% monthly but rose 3.3% year-over-year, and private nonresidential construction spending decreased 0.3% monthly and 6.6% annually, though data center spending continued to grow at 0.6% monthly and 23% year-over-year.
The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 90.6 to 91.2 in June 2026, driven by improved business conditions and declining oil prices, though consumer views of the labor market weakened with the share reporting jobs as "hard to get" reaching a five-and-a-half-year high at 22.5%. The Present Situation Index fell to 116.4 while the Expectation Index rose to 74.4, marking the seventeenth consecutive month below the 80 threshold often associated with recession signals within a year.
CRMLS, the largest real estate listing service in the country, just gave home sellers a more flexible way to bring their home to the market before it is broadly launched across the internet. With a new Limited Exposure Coming Soon option, home sellers can ask their agent to market their home as a Coming Soon […]…
National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales increased 3.8% month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year in May, with gains across all four U.S. regions.
The PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to a three-year high of 4.1% year-over-year in May 2026, with core PCE rising 3.4%, driven partly by energy price increases related to Iran conflict tensions. Despite elevated inflation, consumer spending remained resilient with a 0.7% monthly increase in May, though the personal saving rate held at a three-year low of 3.0% as households drew down savings to maintain spending amid eroding real income.
The median U.S. home price hit a record high, one factor that’s pushing some prospective buyers away. New listings of U.S. homes for sale fell 1.7% from a week earlier during the week ending June 21 to their lowest level since February. The total number of homes for sale dipped 0.4% week over week, the […] The post…
Passed unanimously out of the Senate Banking Committee, the ROAD to Housing Act embraces solutions to the housing affordability crisis like zoning reform and streamlining rules to encourage more homebuilding. For the first time since the foreclosure crisis, U.S. Congress has taken meaningful action to make housing…
New home sales of newly built single-family homes declined 7.3% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units and fell 6.8% year-over-year, driven by elevated mortgage rates, rising inflation, and economic uncertainty that constrained buyer affordability. The median new home sale price reached $424,900, months' supply of new homes stood at 10.3 months (above the balanced market indicator of 5-6 months), and regional performance was mixed with the West experiencing the sharpest monthly decline of 26.9%.
High-flood-risk U.S. counties lost over 63,000 more residents than they gained in 2025–nearly double the prior year’s outflow. Flood-prone places are losing residents partly because of climate risk. Some residents are leaving in search of cheaper housing or different politics. Counties at low risk of flooding…
Nationwide, 13.6% of the homebuying deals made in May fell through. That share has held steady over the last 4 months as buyers and sellers grow accustomed to today’s market. 4 of the 10 metros where contract cancellations were most common were in Texas, and three were in Florida; all are strong buyer’s markets.…
How can investors gain a competitive edge when seeking deals in the hospitality sector? Explore the topic with the co-founder and managing partner of AWH Partners, Russ Flicker, about how his $2 billion hospitality platform leverages proprietary data and AI to make smarter decisions. The post AFIRE Podcast 2026.21:…
Lennar reported Q2 2026 earnings showing its average sales price per home fell 4.6% year-over-year to $371,000 (down 24.4% from Q3 2022 peak), reflecting approximately 12.9% in incentives and base price adjustments to sustain sales volume in an affordability crisis. The company increased deliveries by 2% to 20,519 homes and cut construction costs by 13% over several years, but gross margin fell to 15.6% from 17.8% year-over-year, while net income plunged 36% year-over-year to $305 million and Lennar's stock price declined 49% from its September 2024 peak.
Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data…
I’ve been thinking about this for some time. After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I’ve decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog. However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I’ll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. …
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Earlier:
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity -…
From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to…
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data…
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000 . This is 4.6 percent below the…
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast…
The DOL reported : In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000 , an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000…
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in…
The post previews two economic reports scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 A.M. ET: the Census Bureau's Trade Balance report for November, with a consensus forecast of a $59.4 billion trade deficit, and the initial weekly unemployment claims report, with a consensus expectation of 205,000 claims up from 199,000 the prior week.
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was…
The post from Calculated Risk announces the economic indicators scheduled for release on Wednesday, January 8, 2026, including the ADP Employment Report for December (with a consensus expectation of 50,000 private jobs added, up from a loss of 32,000 in November), the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November, the ISM Services Index for December, and the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications index. The document provides the release times and basic descriptions of each report without presenting final findings or analysis.
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and…
The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024.
The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate at 3.75% in its June 2026 meeting under new Chair Warsh while adopting a more hawkish tone, removing the prior easing bias and emphasizing price stability, with the Summary of Economic Projections revising 2026 core PCE inflation expectations upward to 3.3% from 2.7% and indicating at least one rate hike by end of 2026. Chair Warsh announced a task force to review Fed operations across communications, balance sheet strategy, data sources, productivity analysis, and inflation framework, and acknowledged that current Fed policy is "somewhat restrictive" for the housing market while economic growth is projected at 2.2% for 2026 and unemployment at 4.3%.
Housing starts fell 15.4% in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million units, with multifamily construction dropping 40.2% month-over-month and single-family starts declining 1.9%, attributed to high interest rates, rising construction costs, and labor shortages. The total number of housing units under construction declined 7.1% year-over-year to 1.27 million units, while regional performance varied, with the Northeast showing strength but the South and West posting declines.
Through April 2026, single-family residential permits declined 6.4 percent year-over-year to 299,642 units nationwide due to affordability challenges and elevated borrowing costs, while multifamily permits increased 7.5 percent to 166,252 units with strong regional gains led by the Northeast's 33.5 percent increase. Regionally, single-family permitting fell in all four regions with the Northeast declining 13.8 percent, while multifamily permits rose in three of four regions with only the South experiencing an 8.4 percent decrease.
Residential building material prices, excluding energy, rose 4.4% year-over-year in May 2026, their highest rate since January 2023, while the price index for inputs to new residential construction increased 1.3% monthly and 6.9% annually. Energy prices for residential construction rose 17.2% in May and were 62.8% higher than a year prior, with No. 2 diesel fuel up 105.9% year-over-year, though gypsum building material prices declined 1.1% from the previous year.
The Consumer Price Index rose to 4.2% annually in May 2026, marking the highest increase in three years, with energy costs—driven by the Iran war—accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase and pushing gasoline prices up more than a dollar. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 2.9% annually, the shelter index rose 3.4% year-over-year, and the energy component surged 23.5% annually, while inflation outpaced wage growth for the second consecutive month and energy prices are expected to remain elevated for months ahead.
Existing home sales rose 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units in May 2026, reaching a five-month high as the first-time buyer share climbed to 35%, the highest since June 2020, according to National Association of Realtors data cited in this NAHB blog post. Despite the sales increase, inventory remained tight at 1.55 million units with a 4.5-month supply, mortgage rates held around 6.5% after rising over 50 basis points since late February, and the median existing home price reached $429,300, up 1.3% year-over-year for the 35th consecutive month of annual gains.
Mortgage application activity declined 5.5% month-over-month in May 2026 due to higher rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.54%, though adjustable-rate mortgages gained share to 9.0% of total applications as borrowers sought lower initial rates. Year-over-year, total mortgage applications remained 14.2% higher, with refinance applications up 26.4% and purchase applications rising 6.2%, while ARM applications increased 38.2% compared to May 2025.
The U.S. labor market showed continued resilience in May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000 jobs for the third consecutive month and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, while wage growth moderated to 3.4% year-over-year. Job gains concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, though residential construction employment declined by 33,300 jobs over the past 12 months, marking the fifteenth consecutive annual decline.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May 2026, up 7 basis points from April and 36 basis points since the Middle East conflict began, while the 15-year rate averaged 5.76%, also up 7 basis points monthly as elevated inflation and rising energy prices pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.47%. Persistently high inflation strained household budgets, causing the personal saving rate to fall to 2.6% in April, the lowest level since June 2022.
Construction job openings in the United States increased slightly from 234,000 in March to 259,000 in April 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, with the construction job openings rate rising to 3% in April from 2.4% a year prior. The article notes that while overall economy job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, construction openings remain measurably lower than three years ago due to declines in housing construction activity, though recent nonresidential construction gains have provided some offset.
Private residential construction spending increased 0.8% in April 2026, driven primarily by gains in single-family and home improvement spending, with total private residential construction spending 1.7% higher than April 2025. Single-family construction spending rose 1.4% monthly but declined 2.9% year-over-year, while remodeling spending increased 0.4% monthly and was up 7.5% year-over-year, whereas multifamily construction spending edged down 0.3% in April but remained 1.1% higher than a year earlier.
New condominium apartment sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area fell 60 percent in 2025 to just 1,599 units, the lowest annual total since 1991. A record 28 active condo projects totalling 7,243 units were cancelled during the year.