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This is the End and a New Beginning

I’ve been thinking about this for some time. After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I’ve decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog. However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I’ll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and <a…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Riskreport

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025. It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3…

EconomyHomebuildersHospitalityU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: <a…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026

The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. …

EconomyHomebuildersIndustrial & LogisticsU.S. NationalNew York
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Calculated Risknews

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000 . This is 4.6 percent below the…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Comments on December Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Earlier: <a…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Riskreport

Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Flow of Funds

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EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity -…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Riskreport

Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States . The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims

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EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

December Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Trade Deficit Decreased to $29.4 Billion in October

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Riskreport

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased Slightly in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year

From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 Trends The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 208,000

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000 , an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Riskreport

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period

From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA)…

EconomyHomebuildersDebt & FinancingU.S. National
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Calculated Riskreport

ISM® Services Index Increased to 54.4% in December

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Riskreport

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995.…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

BLS: Job Openings Declined to 7.1 million in November

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Job Openings, ISM Services

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EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

ADP: Private Employment Increased 41,000 in December

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Riskreport

Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." <a…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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Calculated Risknews

Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.0 Million SAAR in December

The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024. <a…

EconomyHomebuildersU.S. National
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