What happened, and who moved.
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Earlier:
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity -…
From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to…
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data…
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000 . This is 4.6 percent below the…
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast…
The DOL reported : In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000 , an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000…
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in…
The post previews two economic reports scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 A.M. ET: the Census Bureau's Trade Balance report for November, with a consensus forecast of a $59.4 billion trade deficit, and the initial weekly unemployment claims report, with a consensus expectation of 205,000 claims up from 199,000 the prior week.
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was…
The post from Calculated Risk announces the economic indicators scheduled for release on Wednesday, January 8, 2026, including the ADP Employment Report for December (with a consensus expectation of 50,000 private jobs added, up from a loss of 32,000 in November), the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November, the ISM Services Index for December, and the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications index. The document provides the release times and basic descriptions of each report without presenting final findings or analysis.
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and…
The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024.
The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate at 3.75% in its June 2026 meeting under new Chair Warsh while adopting a more hawkish tone, removing the prior easing bias and emphasizing price stability, with the Summary of Economic Projections revising 2026 core PCE inflation expectations upward to 3.3% from 2.7% and indicating at least one rate hike by end of 2026. Chair Warsh announced a task force to review Fed operations across communications, balance sheet strategy, data sources, productivity analysis, and inflation framework, and acknowledged that current Fed policy is "somewhat restrictive" for the housing market while economic growth is projected at 2.2% for 2026 and unemployment at 4.3%.
Housing starts fell 15.4% in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million units, with multifamily construction dropping 40.2% month-over-month and single-family starts declining 1.9%, attributed to high interest rates, rising construction costs, and labor shortages. The total number of housing units under construction declined 7.1% year-over-year to 1.27 million units, while regional performance varied, with the Northeast showing strength but the South and West posting declines.
Through April 2026, single-family residential permits declined 6.4 percent year-over-year to 299,642 units nationwide due to affordability challenges and elevated borrowing costs, while multifamily permits increased 7.5 percent to 166,252 units with strong regional gains led by the Northeast's 33.5 percent increase. Regionally, single-family permitting fell in all four regions with the Northeast declining 13.8 percent, while multifamily permits rose in three of four regions with only the South experiencing an 8.4 percent decrease.
Residential building material prices, excluding energy, rose 4.4% year-over-year in May 2026, their highest rate since January 2023, while the price index for inputs to new residential construction increased 1.3% monthly and 6.9% annually. Energy prices for residential construction rose 17.2% in May and were 62.8% higher than a year prior, with No. 2 diesel fuel up 105.9% year-over-year, though gypsum building material prices declined 1.1% from the previous year.
The Consumer Price Index rose to 4.2% annually in May 2026, marking the highest increase in three years, with energy costs—driven by the Iran war—accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase and pushing gasoline prices up more than a dollar. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 2.9% annually, the shelter index rose 3.4% year-over-year, and the energy component surged 23.5% annually, while inflation outpaced wage growth for the second consecutive month and energy prices are expected to remain elevated for months ahead.
Existing home sales rose 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units in May 2026, reaching a five-month high as the first-time buyer share climbed to 35%, the highest since June 2020, according to National Association of Realtors data cited in this NAHB blog post. Despite the sales increase, inventory remained tight at 1.55 million units with a 4.5-month supply, mortgage rates held around 6.5% after rising over 50 basis points since late February, and the median existing home price reached $429,300, up 1.3% year-over-year for the 35th consecutive month of annual gains.
Mortgage application activity declined 5.5% month-over-month in May 2026 due to higher rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.54%, though adjustable-rate mortgages gained share to 9.0% of total applications as borrowers sought lower initial rates. Year-over-year, total mortgage applications remained 14.2% higher, with refinance applications up 26.4% and purchase applications rising 6.2%, while ARM applications increased 38.2% compared to May 2025.
The U.S. labor market showed continued resilience in May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000 jobs for the third consecutive month and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, while wage growth moderated to 3.4% year-over-year. Job gains concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, though residential construction employment declined by 33,300 jobs over the past 12 months, marking the fifteenth consecutive annual decline.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May 2026, up 7 basis points from April and 36 basis points since the Middle East conflict began, while the 15-year rate averaged 5.76%, also up 7 basis points monthly as elevated inflation and rising energy prices pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.47%. Persistently high inflation strained household budgets, causing the personal saving rate to fall to 2.6% in April, the lowest level since June 2022.
Construction job openings in the United States increased slightly from 234,000 in March to 259,000 in April 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, with the construction job openings rate rising to 3% in April from 2.4% a year prior. The article notes that while overall economy job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, construction openings remain measurably lower than three years ago due to declines in housing construction activity, though recent nonresidential construction gains have provided some offset.
Private residential construction spending increased 0.8% in April 2026, driven primarily by gains in single-family and home improvement spending, with total private residential construction spending 1.7% higher than April 2025. Single-family construction spending rose 1.4% monthly but declined 2.9% year-over-year, while remodeling spending increased 0.4% monthly and was up 7.5% year-over-year, whereas multifamily construction spending edged down 0.3% in April but remained 1.1% higher than a year earlier.
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At its June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who signaled a shift away from forward guidance toward allowing markets to price information independently, while the Summary of Economic Projections revised near-term inflation upward to 3.6% and the funds rate path to 3.8% without changing longer-run benchmarks. For commercial real estate, the meeting implies a slower return to rate relief in the near term despite unchanged long-run policy destinations, while Warsh announced five task forces to review Fed communications, balance sheet management, data collection, productivity, and inflation frameworks by year-end.
Blackstone President and COO Jon Gray argues the conditions are in place for a strong dealmaking environment in 2025, including in real estate, which he sees continuing on a path of recovery alongside infrastructure investment opportunities.