What will influence capital flows in 2021? From oil to geopolitics

As models carry an inherent amount of uncertainty, the task of predicting the future when the market is faced with a major shock, such as Covid-19, is even more difficult. While our capital gravity model (which has predicted the top 10 sources and destinations of capital in 2021) includes a ‘shock’ component to capture this impact, we also highlight three further influences on capital flows over the coming year.