The industry's own research.
417 reports
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CRED iQ reports the overall CMBS distress rate rose to 11.70 percent in December 2025, a third consecutive monthly increase, with a delinquency rate of 8.89 percent and a specially serviced rate of 11.15 percent.
KBRA reports the delinquency rate among KBRA-rated US private label CMBS decreased to 7.7 percent in December 2025 from 7.8 percent in November, while the distress rate ticked up to 10.6 percent.
Newmark reports U.S. capital markets momentum strengthened through year-end 2025 as improving liquidity and active debt markets sustained a rebound in transaction activity. Institutional investment rose 23 percent year-over-year, while 547 billion dollars in loans maturing between 2025 and 2027 remain potentially troubled, led by office and multifamily.
The outlook argues private real estate is poised for a meaningful recovery in 2026, with values stabilizing and total returns positive for six consecutive quarters. Global institutions begin the year below target allocation, with nearly three times as many investors planning to add capital as to reduce it.
Newmark's fourth quarter 2025 multifamily capital markets report reviews transaction volume, pricing, debt availability and investor demand for U.S. apartment assets.
Trepp reports the CMBS delinquency rate rose 4 basis points to 7.30 percent in December 2025, with lodging up 44 basis points to 6.61 percent and office retreating 37 basis points to 11.31 percent.
The outlook projects commercial real estate lending rising to 805 billion dollars in 2026, a 38 percent increase over the 583 billion seen in 2025. Peak maturity volumes of 875 billion are forecast for 2026, keeping refinancing risk elevated even as multifamily fundamentals improve.
Brookfield makes the case that asset-based finance remains underpenetrated by private capital, but that this is about to change. The piece looks beyond direct lending to the broader private credit opportunity set.
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group projects the U.S. housing market regaining momentum into 2026 with total housing starts near 1.3 million annually and multifamily construction leveling out as supply and demand rebalance, while the 30-year fixed mortgage stays above 6 percent through much of the forecast.
Brookfield's credit outlook contends that continued investor appetite for private credit underscores confidence in the asset class. The piece makes the case for disciplined underwriting and a focus on asset quality across market cycles.
CRED iQ records a November 2025 CMBS distress rate of 11.6 percent, with non-performing matured loans comprising the largest share of the distressed universe and office exhibiting the highest sector stress.
KBRA's November 2025 report tracks delinquency and distress rates across KBRA-rated US private label CMBS, with continued pressure in the office and multifamily sectors.
Third quarter GAAP net income was 72.6 million dollars and Distributable Earnings were 148.6 million dollars, with the company acquiring Fundamental, a 2.2 billion dollar net lease portfolio.
The report examines the affordable rental sector following the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit allocation increases in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and notes declining market-based borrowing costs supporting a more accommodative financing environment.
KBRA reports the delinquency rate among KBRA-rated US private label CMBS rose to 7.9 percent in October 2025, with 1.7 billion dollars in loans newly added to distress and multifamily seeing the highest new volume.
Part of the 'Demystifying Private Credit' series, this piece argues that across the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID pandemic, direct lending was less volatile than equities and other debt sectors and outperformed on a risk-return basis. It frames private credit's counter-cyclical lending as a component of economic resilience.
Fannie Mae's October 2025 outlook details the Economic and Strategic Research Group's expectations for home sales, housing starts, home prices and mortgage rates amid elevated borrowing costs and affordability constraints.
Brookfield argues the real estate recovery is underway, with an active credit market supporting a rise in transactions. The firm sees selectivity and operational value creation as the keys to returns as the asset class moves into a new cycle.
CRED iQ's third-quarter 2025 market update reviews CMBS distress trends and broader commercial real estate conditions across major property sectors.
The 3Q 2025 Board of Governors Sentiment Index rose 9.3 percent to 122.8 from 112.3 in 2Q 2025, reaching its highest level since 4Q 2024 and solidifying the market's recovery momentum.
Newmark's third quarter 2025 capital markets report tracks transaction volume, pricing and debt market conditions across the major U.S. property sectors as the recovery continued.
KBRA reports the office delinquency rate decreased 90 basis points to 12.3 percent in September 2025, while overall KBRA-rated CMBS delinquency stood at 7.7 percent.
Ares forecasts private credit could hit new milestones in 2026 amid expansion beyond core corporate lending and rising interest from private wealth investors. Larger deal sizes, new asset classes and individual-investor participation are positioning private credit as a mainstream asset class.
Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased 47.1 billion dollars, or 1.0 percent, to 4.88 trillion dollars at the end of the second quarter of 2025. Multifamily mortgage debt rose 27.7 billion dollars to 2.19 trillion dollars.
Morgan Stanley analyzes why Fed rate cuts alone may not revive the US housing market, identifying the additional factors needed for a meaningful recovery.
CRED iQ reports the CMBS distress rate reached a record 11.8 percent, driven by maturity defaults and continued stress in the office sector.
The analysis finds national multifamily vacancy holding near 6.5 percent in the first half of 2025 as steady demand paused further deterioration, with asking rents above 1,900 dollars. Affordability constraints are creating opportunities for borrowers focused on workforce and affordable housing.
The September 2025 US Capital Trends report examines shifting dynamics in commercial real estate lending, tracking transaction volumes, deal structures, liquidity conditions, and investor behavior across property types.
The Q3 2025 edition of the Global Real Estate Lens provides a guide to global property markets, with valuations and transaction prices continuing to stabilize and recover despite ongoing macro uncertainty.
Second quarter GAAP net income was 129.8 million dollars and Distributable Earnings were 151.1 million dollars, with commercial real estate lending representing about half of the company's asset base.
Brookfield examines why reset property values have created an attractive entry point for private real estate lending, offering the potential for reduced risk and higher returns. It maps how the pullback of traditional lenders has opened a structural opportunity for private credit.
The index surged 27.8 percent to 112.3 from 87.9 in 1Q 2025, returning above the neutral 100 baseline, with 86 percent of respondents expecting more borrower demand, up from 48 percent in the prior quarter.
The mid-year update forecasts an improving real estate cycle with rising transaction activity and stabilising borrowing costs. Debt markets are expected to remain very active as the AI infrastructure boom drives data center demand.
The midyear update describes a resilient commercial real estate debt market in the first half of 2025, with higher issuance in data center sectors and traditional CMBS consistent with 2024. Maturity defaults remained tied to higher rates and office performance decline.
Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased 46.8 billion dollars, or 1.0 percent, to 4.81 trillion dollars at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Multifamily mortgage debt rose 19.9 billion dollars to 2.16 trillion dollars.
Trepp's Mid-Year 2025 publication highlights strong multifamily fundamentals despite signs of growing distress across other commercial real estate sectors.
Despite market volatility, KKR says it is seeing abundant opportunities in real estate credit and expects its lending pipeline to remain elevated. The note details why the firm's real estate lending pipeline reached record highs.
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The outlook frames the repricing of commercial real estate as creating disciplined deployment opportunities through bridge lending and value-add equity strategies. It positions multifamily as transitioning from a supply-heavy correction toward improving fundamentals.
KBRA's May 2025 report details delinquency and distress trends across KBRA-rated US private label CMBS, including new loan additions to distress and notable resolutions.
The Q2 2025 edition of the Global Real Estate Lens reports that valuations and transaction prices continued to stabilize and recover despite uncertainties, supporting a cautiously improving outlook for global property markets.
CRED iQ reports the CMBS special servicing rate climbed to 9.9 percent as loans continued transferring to special servicing ahead of imminent default and maturity.
First quarter GAAP net income was 112.3 million dollars and Distributable Earnings were 156.3 million dollars, with commercial lending originations already surpassing the prior full year.
KBRA's CMBS Trend Watch reports year-over-year issuance doubled to 37.1 billion dollars through March 2025, alongside rating activity and surveillance trends across the sector.
The 1Q 2025 Sentiment Index fell 30.5 percent to 87.9 from 126.6 in 4Q 2024, the second largest drop on record, coinciding with the Liberation Day tariff announcements on April 2.
The Q1 2025 edition of the Global Real Estate Lens notes deal activity picked up at the end of 2024, reflecting improving sentiment, with clear evidence of prices recovering following significant earlier falls.
Lument's 2025 outlook expects seniors housing and care valuations to rise above 2024 levels as occupancy nears pre-COVID norms, while a tight labor market and compressed margins remain the predominant headwinds to value appreciation.
Freddie Mac forecasts positive but weaker multifamily growth in 2025, projecting rent growth of 2.2 percent and vacancy rising to 6.2 percent, with origination volume expected at 370 to 380 billion dollars.
CREFC's quarterly Compendium compiles data on the state of the CRE debt capital markets, including outstanding debt, issuance volumes and lending activity across the 6.2 trillion dollar sector.
The 2025 global outlook comprises in-depth research articulating distinct investment views across the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Mexico, as well as the private real estate credit markets globally.
Principal viewed real estate values as largely adjusted for the cycle, with debt among its highest conviction strategies and structurally-driven sectors such as data centers, logistics and residential well positioned for 2025.
TPG Real Estate leaders argue that ongoing dislocation in real estate credit markets, with a multitrillion-dollar CRE maturity wall, has created one of the best moments to be a real estate lender.
Hines argues that 2025 brings attractive opportunities for debt investment in the U.S. office sector, outlining market trends and strategies for risk-adjusted returns.
Ares examines the growth drivers behind the emerging credit secondaries asset class and its role in providing liquidity solutions to credit investors. The analysis details how the market has expanded as private credit has scaled.
KKR discusses four ideas real estate credit investors need to know about today's markets, arguing that a scarcity of capital and rising transaction volume is creating the chance to earn equity-like returns on real estate debt.
Julie Solomon, Head of Real Estate at Ares, discusses how a dramatic repricing of high-quality assets has created an attractive entry point. She notes slowing construction is reducing supply, which she expects to drive further rent growth.
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Ares' Q3 2025 credit monitor tracks renewed credit issuance, refinancing and repricing activity, and a pickup in M&A volumes globally. It assesses credit fundamentals across public and private markets amid an evolving macro backdrop.
Ares' quarterly credit monitor reviews a year of resilience and divergence across global credit markets shaped by geopolitics, AI and shifting tariff policy. It advises investors to maintain focus on valuations and credit quality as opportunities broaden across public and private markets.