The industry's own research.
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PGIM Real Estate's 2026 outlook for private commercial real estate credit, noting rising multifamily origination share and demand for transitional bridge-to-agency financing amid upcoming loan maturities.
This mid-year big-box industrial report finds the North American market stabilizing after years of historic growth and rebalancing, setting the stage for the next expansion cycle.
The 35th edition analyzes rents across 141 premier urban retail locations globally, finding headline rents grew 4.2% year-over-year amid enduring demand for flagship main-street space.
Analysis of how a federal shutdown affects GSE (Fannie/Freddie) and HUD-insured multifamily lending, concluding GSE markets remain fully operational while HUD processing may slow. Includes the $73B-per-GSE 2025 cap context.
A thematic report on how the technology industry drives the U.S. office market, tracking tech talent and corporate expansion beyond the San Francisco Bay Area into emerging hubs.
Examines how multifamily owners can use expanded financing options when facing maturing construction debt or lease-up properties, advocating parallel execution paths including agency takeouts, bridge financing, and sales. Draws on RealPage and Zelman data.
Second quarter 2025 U.S. multifamily capital markets report, noting record-setting demand, resilient absorption and vacancy compression despite robust new supply.
Newmark's house view on the U.S. office leasing market for the second quarter of 2025, summarizing demand, availability and rent trends.
Newmark presents the second quarter 2025 U.S. Life Science Market Conditions & Trends report, tracking leasing, lab demand, vacancy and tenant activity across major life science clusters.
A snapshot of the 15 leading U.S. office markets in Q1 2025, with the road to recovery being led by Manhattan amid a steady 20.1% combined vacancy rate.
This thematic analysis revisits Colliers' 2020 forecasts to assess how the U.S. office market and tenant behaviors have transformed five years after the onset of COVID-19.
Colliers' Spring 2025 Retail Report examines how the U.S. retail sector is adapting to a fast-changing consumer and economic environment, including an interview with Hotel Chocolat's CEO.
A financing guide comparing ten factors borrowers should weigh when selecting small-balance multifamily debt sources, including loan structure, hold period, and lender type. Contrasts direct lenders versus intermediaries.
Newmark's U.S. capital markets report covering investment sales, debt maturities and pricing trends, including an estimated $582 billion of potentially troubled debt maturing in 2025-2026.
Newmark's outlook for the North American industrial market, weighing near-term softness from trade policy uncertainty against long-term tailwinds from manufacturing growth and supply-chain regionalization.
Survey of 200+ clients on 2025 multifamily expectations: 65% plan moderate portfolio expansion, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac expected as most active lenders, and stable cap rates with exit rates 25-50 bps higher than entry.
Field report from the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention covering capital availability, lending competition, and credit-spread compression across CRE sectors. Notes spreads as tight as 2021 and shifting lender risk tolerance.
Newmark's outlook on the U.S. data center sector, highlighting an AI-driven structural boom with record annualized spending on new construction and intense competition for power and industrial-zoned development sites.
LaSalle's ISA Outlook 2025 North America chapter, forecasting that US and Canadian real estate is on the verge of a new cycle as interest rates fall from peak and transaction volume grows slowly.
CBRE projects a gradual recovery in U.S. commercial real estate investment in 2025, with cap rates moderately compressing and industrial and multifamily assets remaining investor favorites.
Heitman and ULI's fifth climate-risk report examines the impact of rising property insurance costs on commercial real estate, with strategies for securing affordable coverage and emerging trends reshaping the market.
Knight Frank's review of US residential market dynamics, covering pricing, demand and prime-market trends across major American cities.
Examination of seniors housing financing options across traditional lenders, debt funds, and GSEs (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, HUD), noting a 23% rise in acquisition activity and tighter refinancing terms.
Invesco's Listed Real Assets team's recurring commentary on the listed real estate market and outlook, covering market and sector performance, sub-sector reviews and regional forecasts.
MBA's quarterly research series tracking the level of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding by capital source, with a downloadable latest report.
Home prices fell from prior peaks in 28 of 33 major expensive U.S. cities tracked in May 2026, with the largest declines in Austin (-27%), Oakland (-26%), and New Orleans (-19%), while prices rose year-over-year in only eight cities, notably Chicago and New York City which reached new all-time highs, and San Francisco where AI-driven compensation packages created a "mansion shortage" effect that boosted mid-tier prices 7.8% year-over-year. The analysis attributes prior price spikes from mid-2020 to mid-2022—led by Austin (+62%), Phoenix (+60%), and Fort Worth (+50%)—to Federal Reserve monetary policies including near-zero mortgage rates through quantitative easing, which created the current affordability crisis.
Lennar reported Q2 2026 earnings showing its average sales price per home fell 4.6% year-over-year to $371,000 (down 24.4% from Q3 2022 peak), reflecting approximately 12.9% in incentives and base price adjustments to sustain sales volume in an affordability crisis. The company increased deliveries by 2% to 20,519 homes and cut construction costs by 13% over several years, but gross margin fell to 15.6% from 17.8% year-over-year, while net income plunged 36% year-over-year to $305 million and Lennar's stock price declined 49% from its September 2024 peak.
Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data…
I’ve been thinking about this for some time. After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I’ve decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog. However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I’ll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each…
Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025. It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. …
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Earlier:
The document announces four U.S. economic data releases scheduled for Friday, January 10, 2026: the December employment report (consensus expectation of 55,000 jobs added and unemployment declining to 4.5%), Housing Starts for September and October, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading for January, and Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts from the Federal Reserve.
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity -…
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States . The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The…
From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to…
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data…
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000 . This is 4.6 percent below the…
From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 Trends The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices…
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast…
The DOL reported : In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000 , an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000…
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in…
The post previews two economic reports scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 A.M. ET: the Census Bureau's Trade Balance report for November, with a consensus forecast of a $59.4 billion trade deficit, and the initial weekly unemployment claims report, with a consensus expectation of 205,000 claims up from 199,000 the prior week.
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was…
The post from Calculated Risk announces the economic indicators scheduled for release on Wednesday, January 8, 2026, including the ADP Employment Report for December (with a consensus expectation of 50,000 private jobs added, up from a loss of 32,000 in November), the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November, the ISM Services Index for December, and the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications index. The document provides the release times and basic descriptions of each report without presenting final findings or analysis.
From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA)…
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and…
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995.…
(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in…
The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024.
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."
The household real estate asset market value reached $48.7 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 1.7% increase from the fourth quarter and a 2.6% increase year-over-year, while owners' equity in real estate totaled $34.9 trillion with a 71.6% equity share. Among generational cohorts as of the fourth quarter of 2025, Baby Boomers held the largest real estate assets at $19.4 trillion, followed by Gen X at $14.3 trillion and Millennials at $10.2 trillion, with Millennials experiencing the highest percentage gain of 80.4% since the fourth quarter of 2020.
The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate at 3.75% in its June 2026 meeting under new Chair Warsh while adopting a more hawkish tone, removing the prior easing bias and emphasizing price stability, with the Summary of Economic Projections revising 2026 core PCE inflation expectations upward to 3.3% from 2.7% and indicating at least one rate hike by end of 2026. Chair Warsh announced a task force to review Fed operations across communications, balance sheet strategy, data sources, productivity analysis, and inflation framework, and acknowledged that current Fed policy is "somewhat restrictive" for the housing market while economic growth is projected at 2.2% for 2026 and unemployment at 4.3%.
Housing starts fell 15.4% in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million units, with multifamily construction dropping 40.2% month-over-month and single-family starts declining 1.9%, attributed to high interest rates, rising construction costs, and labor shortages. The total number of housing units under construction declined 7.1% year-over-year to 1.27 million units, while regional performance varied, with the Northeast showing strength but the South and West posting declines.
Builder confidence in newly built single-family homes fell to 35 in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for June 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month below 50, driven by rising material costs, elevated mortgage rates, and affordability challenges. The survey found that 35% of builders cut prices in June with an average reduction of 6%, while 62% used sales incentives, and regulatory costs were estimated to add more than 26% to the price of an average single-family home.
Through April 2026, single-family residential permits declined 6.4 percent year-over-year to 299,642 units nationwide due to affordability challenges and elevated borrowing costs, while multifamily permits increased 7.5 percent to 166,252 units with strong regional gains led by the Northeast's 33.5 percent increase. Regionally, single-family permitting fell in all four regions with the Northeast declining 13.8 percent, while multifamily permits rose in three of four regions with only the South experiencing an 8.4 percent decrease.
Residential building material prices, excluding energy, rose 4.4% year-over-year in May 2026, their highest rate since January 2023, while the price index for inputs to new residential construction increased 1.3% monthly and 6.9% annually. Energy prices for residential construction rose 17.2% in May and were 62.8% higher than a year prior, with No. 2 diesel fuel up 105.9% year-over-year, though gypsum building material prices declined 1.1% from the previous year.
An NAHB study estimates that government regulations account for $131,734, or 26.4% of the average price of a new single-family home, comprising $46,795 in lot-development regulatory costs and $84,939 in builder-phase construction costs. The regulatory cost burden increased 40% from the 2021 estimate of $93,871, more than double the 2011 estimate of $65,224, based on surveys conducted in March 2026 and calibrated against a January 2026 average new home price of $499,500.
The Consumer Price Index rose to 4.2% annually in May 2026, marking the highest increase in three years, with energy costs—driven by the Iran war—accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase and pushing gasoline prices up more than a dollar. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 2.9% annually, the shelter index rose 3.4% year-over-year, and the energy component surged 23.5% annually, while inflation outpaced wage growth for the second consecutive month and energy prices are expected to remain elevated for months ahead.