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John Burns Research and Consulting's 2026 Executive Housing Summit gathered 150 housing industry executives (27% private equity, 18% banks/lenders, 10% land developers, and others) in Laguna Beach to discuss market conditions and strategic positioning. The summit's eight key takeaways indicated housing executives maintain cautious outlooks with split sentiment through 2029, entitled land development has become the top risk-adjusted investment, equity raising has slowed while debt and land banking gain market share, entry-level buyers face affordability pressures while affluent segments show strong demand, rental policy tailwinds exist alongside technology scaling opportunities, and artificial intelligence requires multiyear data cleanup efforts before strategic adoption.

Passed unanimously out of the Senate Banking Committee, the ROAD to Housing Act embraces solutions to the housing affordability crisis like zoning reform and streamlining rules to encourage more homebuilding. For the first time since the foreclosure crisis, U.S. Congress has taken meaningful action to make housing…

New home sales of newly built single-family homes declined 7.3% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units and fell 6.8% year-over-year, driven by elevated mortgage rates, rising inflation, and economic uncertainty that constrained buyer affordability. The median new home sale price reached $424,900, months' supply of new homes stood at 10.3 months (above the balanced market indicator of 5-6 months), and regional performance was mixed with the West experiencing the sharpest monthly decline of 26.9%.

U.S. sawmill production fell in the first quarter of 2026, marking the second consecutive quarter of declining output, with production down 0.4% from the prior quarter though up 1.7% year-over-year, according to the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production report. Sawmill full production capacity declined 6.0% year-over-year while the utilization rate rose to 71.8% on a four-quarter moving average, and employment in sawmill and wood preservation industries fell to roughly 82,800 workers, the lowest level since 2010 after twelve straight quarterly declines.

High-flood-risk U.S. counties lost over 63,000 more residents than they gained in 2025–nearly double the prior year’s outflow. Flood-prone places are losing residents partly because of climate risk. Some residents are leaving in search of cheaper housing or different politics. Counties at low risk of flooding…

In May 2026, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 38 states with a net gain of 172,000 jobs nationally, while construction employment added 17,000 jobs with 23 states recording gains, though performance varied considerably across states. Over the 12-month period ending in May 2026, total nonfarm employment rose by 503,000 jobs nationally (0.3% gain), with construction employment increasing by 68,000 jobs (0.8% gain), though 19 states and D.C. experienced employment declines, and state unemployment rates ranged from 2.1% in South Dakota to 6.1% in D.C.

Home prices rose 0.3% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Prices rose 2.5% on a year-over-year basis–the fastest growth rate in six months. On a local level, prices rose in 29 major metros month over month, with the biggest increases in Cleveland, Providence and New York. This is based on the Redfin…

More than half of homes are selling above asking price in Newark, San Francisco, San Jose and Nassau County, making them the most competitive markets in the nation. The AI boom is leading to bidding wars in the Bay Area, and in the Northeast, many metros are seller’s markets. The least competitive markets are in…

JLL's Big Six Residential Development Report for Summer 2025 analyzes residential development trends across six UK cities (Birmingham, Bristol, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, and Manchester), finding average annual price growth of 1.7% and rental growth of 2.1% across these markets, with Birmingham leading in both metrics and over 14,500 BTR units in its pipeline. Key findings include a 64% increase in BTR investment in H1 2025 versus the five-year H1 average, normalization of rental growth from 4.2% in December 2024 to 2.1% currently, removal of Scotland's temporary rent cap legislation on 1 April 2025, and development viability challenges from building safety regulations and planning restrictions impacting new home completions despite strong underlying demand for urban housing.

The NAHB analysis compares net new jobs created in 2024 (approximately 1.8 million) against housing permits issued in 2023 (1.51 million units) to assess whether housing construction is keeping pace with employment-driven demand, finding an overall jobs-to-permits ratio of 1.2 and elevated ratios of 1.84 for single-family permits and 2.61 for multifamily permits. The document identifies metropolitan areas with the highest housing supply pressures (Fairbanks, Morgantown, Battle Creek) and lowest pressures (Weirton, Wheeling, Elkhart), attributing imbalances to factors including construction costs, labor shortages, land availability, and regulatory barriers, while noting that multifamily development has played a more significant role in high-demand markets than single-family construction.

Nearly half of U.S. home sellers gave concessions to buyers in May, the highest May share in our records Concessions were most common in Nashville, the nation’s strongest buyer’s market, where three-quarters of sellers handed out concessions to attract buyers. They were least common in the Bay Area and other…

This JLL report covers Germany's housing market in the second half of 2025 across eight major cities (Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, Stuttgart, and Leipzig), analyzing rental and condominium price developments, construction activity, and supply-demand dynamics. Key findings include: rental growth in the Big-8 cities averaged +4.4 percent annually with significant variation by city (Hamburg +9.0 percent, Berlin +0.2 percent); condominium prices showed recovery with median growth of +2.9 percent in Munich and +5.3 percent in Dusseldorf; construction completions declined to preliminary lows of 251,900 units in 2024 and projected at 220,000–230,000 for 2025; and all analyzed cities face supply deficits ranging from 10 to 40 units per 10,000 inhabitants, with 2026 expected to mark the lowest completion point before recovery.

Nationwide, 13.6% of the homebuying deals made in May fell through. That share has held steady over the last 4 months as buyers and sellers grow accustomed to today’s market. 4 of the 10 metros where contract cancellations were most common were in Texas, and three were in Florida; all are strong buyer’s markets.…

23 April 2026 There is real merit in making changes to the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount and Negative Gearing in Australia. Given we have a national housing crisis, this debate needs to include the State and Territory Governments, and it is essential to also bring Stamp Duty, Land Tax and the various Foreign…

How can investors gain a competitive edge when seeking deals in the hospitality sector? Explore the topic with the co-founder and managing partner of AWH Partners, Russ Flicker, about how his $2 billion hospitality platform leverages proprietary data and AI to make smarter decisions. The post AFIRE Podcast 2026.21:…

The CEO Perspective, by Michael Brooks January 21, 2026 I spent much of my downtime over the holidays catching up on the myriad reports released by various government, not-for-profit, and for-profit entities that describe Canada’s housing challenges. The language that […] The post Re-Assessing the Housing Problem…

read in PDF format London’s residential development market remains severely... Read more The post The Residential Land Survey (2026) appeared first on Montagu Evans .

Development plateaus amid challenges similar to those facing the market rate sector SANTA BARBARA, Calif., June 17, 2026 – Decelerating U.S. affordable housing starts will result in a decline in deliveries over the next two years as a host of challenges confront the market, according to a new national report from…

Examines BTR as purpose-built single-family communities; renters-by-choice rose from 27% to 36% YoY; covers proptech, Sun Belt expansion, Blackstone's $3.5B Tricon deal and rate risks.

47th-edition outlook from 1,700+ industry leaders; housing affordability is the sector's top issue, driving migration, zoning reform and multifamily trends.

Examines the US affordability crisis: home prices at record highs vs income, the shortage of starter homes, zoning barriers, and a ~2 million-home supply gap with policy solutions.

MHI economic report: December 2024 production up 11.3% YoY, full-year up 15.9%; SAAR shipments 103,571 homes (+7.3% vs 2023); MH captured 8.9% of single-family starts in December.

JBREC: buying a starter home costs $1,091/month more than renting (vs $233 historical average), driving demand toward single-family rentals; market-by-market premiums analyzed.

CBRE overview of the U.S. build-to-rent sector: BTR helping ease the single-family housing shortage, strong institutional interest, exit optionality, and accelerating domestic/global capital.

Lower rate volatility is supporting further housing recovery as Canada's average single-family home price finds a floor after nearly a year of decline.

Home prices fell from prior peaks in 28 of 33 major expensive U.S. cities tracked in May 2026, with the largest declines in Austin (-27%), Oakland (-26%), and New Orleans (-19%), while prices rose year-over-year in only eight cities, notably Chicago and New York City which reached new all-time highs, and San Francisco where AI-driven compensation packages created a "mansion shortage" effect that boosted mid-tier prices 7.8% year-over-year. The analysis attributes prior price spikes from mid-2020 to mid-2022—led by Austin (+62%), Phoenix (+60%), and Fort Worth (+50%)—to Federal Reserve monetary policies including near-zero mortgage rates through quantitative easing, which created the current affordability crisis.
Lennar reported Q2 2026 earnings showing its average sales price per home fell 4.6% year-over-year to $371,000 (down 24.4% from Q3 2022 peak), reflecting approximately 12.9% in incentives and base price adjustments to sustain sales volume in an affordability crisis. The company increased deliveries by 2% to 20,519 homes and cut construction costs by 13% over several years, but gross margin fell to 15.6% from 17.8% year-over-year, while net income plunged 36% year-over-year to $305 million and Lennar's stock price declined 49% from its September 2024 peak.
Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data…
I’ve been thinking about this for some time. After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I’ve decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog. However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I’ll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each…

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025. It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3…

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. …

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Earlier:

The document announces four U.S. economic data releases scheduled for Friday, January 10, 2026: the December employment report (consensus expectation of 55,000 jobs added and unemployment declining to 4.5%), Housing Starts for September and October, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading for January, and Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts from the Federal Reserve.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity -…

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States . The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The…

From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to…

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data…

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000 . This is 4.6 percent below the…

From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 Trends The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices…
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast…

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000 , an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000…

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in…

The post previews two economic reports scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 A.M. ET: the Census Bureau's Trade Balance report for November, with a consensus forecast of a $59.4 billion trade deficit, and the initial weekly unemployment claims report, with a consensus expectation of 205,000 claims up from 199,000 the prior week.
From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was…

The post from Calculated Risk announces the economic indicators scheduled for release on Wednesday, January 8, 2026, including the ADP Employment Report for December (with a consensus expectation of 50,000 private jobs added, up from a loss of 32,000 in November), the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November, the ISM Services Index for December, and the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage purchase applications index. The document provides the release times and basic descriptions of each report without presenting final findings or analysis.

From the MBA: MMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 9.7 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA)…

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and…

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995.…

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in…

The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.0 million in December on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 1.9% from the sales rate in November, and down 4.9% from December 2024.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

The household real estate asset market value reached $48.7 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 1.7% increase from the fourth quarter and a 2.6% increase year-over-year, while owners' equity in real estate totaled $34.9 trillion with a 71.6% equity share. Among generational cohorts as of the fourth quarter of 2025, Baby Boomers held the largest real estate assets at $19.4 trillion, followed by Gen X at $14.3 trillion and Millennials at $10.2 trillion, with Millennials experiencing the highest percentage gain of 80.4% since the fourth quarter of 2020.

The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate at 3.75% in its June 2026 meeting under new Chair Warsh while adopting a more hawkish tone, removing the prior easing bias and emphasizing price stability, with the Summary of Economic Projections revising 2026 core PCE inflation expectations upward to 3.3% from 2.7% and indicating at least one rate hike by end of 2026. Chair Warsh announced a task force to review Fed operations across communications, balance sheet strategy, data sources, productivity analysis, and inflation framework, and acknowledged that current Fed policy is "somewhat restrictive" for the housing market while economic growth is projected at 2.2% for 2026 and unemployment at 4.3%.

Housing starts fell 15.4% in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million units, with multifamily construction dropping 40.2% month-over-month and single-family starts declining 1.9%, attributed to high interest rates, rising construction costs, and labor shortages. The total number of housing units under construction declined 7.1% year-over-year to 1.27 million units, while regional performance varied, with the Northeast showing strength but the South and West posting declines.

Builder confidence in newly built single-family homes fell to 35 in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for June 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month below 50, driven by rising material costs, elevated mortgage rates, and affordability challenges. The survey found that 35% of builders cut prices in June with an average reduction of 6%, while 62% used sales incentives, and regulatory costs were estimated to add more than 26% to the price of an average single-family home.

Through April 2026, single-family residential permits declined 6.4 percent year-over-year to 299,642 units nationwide due to affordability challenges and elevated borrowing costs, while multifamily permits increased 7.5 percent to 166,252 units with strong regional gains led by the Northeast's 33.5 percent increase. Regionally, single-family permitting fell in all four regions with the Northeast declining 13.8 percent, while multifamily permits rose in three of four regions with only the South experiencing an 8.4 percent decrease.

Residential building material prices, excluding energy, rose 4.4% year-over-year in May 2026, their highest rate since January 2023, while the price index for inputs to new residential construction increased 1.3% monthly and 6.9% annually. Energy prices for residential construction rose 17.2% in May and were 62.8% higher than a year prior, with No. 2 diesel fuel up 105.9% year-over-year, though gypsum building material prices declined 1.1% from the previous year.

An NAHB study estimates that government regulations account for $131,734, or 26.4% of the average price of a new single-family home, comprising $46,795 in lot-development regulatory costs and $84,939 in builder-phase construction costs. The regulatory cost burden increased 40% from the 2021 estimate of $93,871, more than double the 2011 estimate of $65,224, based on surveys conducted in March 2026 and calibrated against a January 2026 average new home price of $499,500.

The Consumer Price Index rose to 4.2% annually in May 2026, marking the highest increase in three years, with energy costs—driven by the Iran war—accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase and pushing gasoline prices up more than a dollar. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 2.9% annually, the shelter index rose 3.4% year-over-year, and the energy component surged 23.5% annually, while inflation outpaced wage growth for the second consecutive month and energy prices are expected to remain elevated for months ahead.