What happened, and who moved.
This is a news article published by Wolf Street in July 2026 reporting on pending home sales data, noting a decline to near-record lows nationally with particular weakness in the West region, in the context of rising mortgage rates.
Would-be sellers backed off, too, with new listings falling to their lowest level since the start of 2026. U.S. pending home sales fell 2.2% week over week during the four weeks ending July 12, the first decline in a month. Some house hunters backed off due to stubbornly high housing costs. The weekly average…
Traditionally, most homes for sale appear on all the major real estate portals the day they list. While this gives the home maximum visibility on day one, it also puts pressure on sellers to nail a one-shot listing—or risk making a bad first impression. But now many sellers also have a new option: a soft-launch,…
This is an economic update published by Wolf Street on July 15, 2026, reporting on producer price inflation metrics, specifically noting core PPI at 4.7% and services PPI at 4.6%.
Homebuyers can now view temperature, precipitation, snowfall, humidity and UV index information on all for-sale listings When you’re buying a home, it’s about more than bedrooms, bathrooms and square footage. You also want to know what everyday life will actually feel like—from snowy winters and rainy springs to…
22% of U.S. residents moving to a different state cited better weather as a factor in their move, the most commonly cited reason, per a new Redfin survey. Nearly as many people, 21%, are looking to move out of state due to concerns about climate change. Weather and climate concerns are more common reasons for […]…
In June 2026, gasoline prices plunged 9.7% month-to-month while core CPI fell 0.02% and all-items CPI dropped 0.42%, with year-over-year core CPI at 2.59% and all-items CPI at 3.53%, driven by energy declines and temporary softness in services and goods categories. The article argues these favorable month-to-month readings represent temporary outliers unlikely to persist and notes the headline inflation data does not provide political support for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July 2026 FOMC meeting.
U.S. inflation decelerated in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declining 0.4% after increasing 0.5% in the previous month. A 5.7% drop in the energy index drove the monthly all-items decrease, more than offsetting increases in indexes for shelter and food, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The…
Takeaway: Rates will fall today after an unexpectedly soft CPI inflation reading that will keep the Fed from hiking at the July 29th meeting. Inflation data comes in much lower than forecasters expected. Overall headline inflation came in at -0.4% month-over-month (3.5% annual) in June due to energy price declines.…
Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the Federal Reserve should consider tightening monetary policy in the near term if core inflation data from the Consumer Price Index (Tuesday) and Producer Price Index (Wednesday) show continued elevated readings, citing concerns about repeating the 2021 mistake of waiting too long to hike rates. Core PCE inflation reached 3.4% and core services PCE reached 3.7% as of the article date, both well above the Fed's 2% target, while Treasury yields rose significantly with the 1-year yield climbing 6 basis points to 4.12%.
San José Mineta International Airport lost more than 1.1 million passengers in 2025 as carriers consolidated Bay Area operations at San Francisco International, opening a widening gap between actual demand and the growth curve embedded in the city’s newly amended Airport Master Plan. San José Mineta International…
Reemerging inflation and stubbornly high interest rates — paired with shifting consumer preferences — are driving a surge in corporate bankruptcy filings, resulting in widespread real estate portfolio cullings and restructurings.
CRE has spent years focusing on Federal Reserve rate cuts as the key to unlocking the market. But recent research from Newmark argues that the framing gets causality backward — Fed decisions to lower rates typically coincide with deteriorating labor...
The most significant federal housing legislation in decades became law at midnight without President Donald Trump's support. Trump canceled plans to sign the 21st Century Road to Housing Act on June 24 after it passed with support from broad, bipartisan...
Rocket has hired Jim Dalrymple as principal of industry relations, a role focused on building relationships with MLSs, trade associations, brokerage leaders and technology partners across the housing industry. As a homeownership platform connecting search, financing and servicing, Rocket and Redfin are investing in…
The US government sold $743 billion in Treasury securities during one week in July 2026, comprising $612 billion in bills and $131 billion in notes and bonds, with the 30-year bond yield reaching 5.058%, the highest since 2007. The article attributes rising long-term yields to inflation running above 4%, expectations of future Federal Reserve rate hikes despite recent cuts, and market concerns about the volume of new Treasury supply that must find buyers at potentially higher yields.
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The Fed has released the minutes of its June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the detailed record of the committee’s discussion that arrives three weeks after each decision. Chair Warsh has moved away from forward guidance, so markets get fewer signals about the Fed’s thinking in real time, and that…
Supply of existing single-family homes reached a 10-year high of 4.6 months in June 2026, while condo supply hit a 14-year high of 6.4 months, as sales of single-family homes fell 2.4% month-over-month to an annual rate of 3.73 million and condo sales fell 2.7% to a record low annual rate of 360,000. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.49%, and the national median single-family home price inched up 1.8% year-over-year to $446,400, with dramatic regional divergences including prices down 26% in Austin and up 5.1% in New York City.
Pending home sales ticked up as housing payments temporarily dipped down. U.S. pending home sales rose 1.3% from a week earlier to their highest level since the first half of May during the four weeks ending July 5. This data is seasonally adjusted. Homebuying demand picked up partly because of temporarily…
AI investment demand is driving persistent inflationary pressures on technology products and electricity prices in the near term, according to Federal Reserve meeting minutes from June 16-17 that mentioned "AI" 21 times, while the Fed noted that expected productivity gains from AI adoption would likely take considerable time to materialize and put downward pressure on inflation only in the future. Core PCE inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target since March 2020, with the six-month core PCE accelerating to 4.1% annualized by May 2026, driven partly by strong AI-related capital spending and demand.
The European Central Bank shed €149 billion of quantitative easing assets in the second quarter of 2026 and has reduced total QE assets by €3.7 trillion (52 percent) since mid-2022, bringing them down to €3.47 trillion, while simultaneously hiking policy rates to 2.25 percent and raising its inflation projection for end-2026 to 3 percent. The ECB also marked down its gold holdings by €160 billion in Q2 after a decline in gold prices expressed in euros, though the document notes that no adverse economic effects have resulted from the substantial balance sheet reduction.
Consumer inflation expectations have become unanchored from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.67% in July 2026—the highest since September 2023—and three-year expectations reaching 3.34%, the highest in four years, according to the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations released in the article. Core PCE inflation has accelerated to 4.1% annualized on a six-month basis as of May 2026, while the article notes that unanchored inflation expectations could become a self-reinforcing psychological phenomenon if consumers and businesses adjust wage and pricing behavior accordingly.
The document reports that the six-month Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4%, with the government selling $84 billion of six-month Treasury bills at an investment rate of 3.97%, up from 3.80% two weeks prior, signaling that bond markets expect multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes within the next six months. The article argues that the bond market is clearly telling the Fed to proceed with rate increases, as evidenced by the 2-year Treasury yield surging 76 basis points since early February to 4.14%, and that banks are raising CD yields above 4% in response to incoming economic data.
The Bank of Japan has reduced its total assets by ¥116.9 trillion (15.6%) since Q1 2024 through quantitative tightening, bringing holdings to ¥639.6 trillion ($3.97 trillion) as of Q2 2026, the lowest level since Q1 2020, while pursuing this policy rather than aggressive interest rate increases to stabilize the yen and address import-driven inflation. Japanese government bond holdings declined ¥12.5 trillion in Q2 to ¥518.3 trillion, loan balances fell ¥9.7 trillion to ¥68.0 trillion, and the BOJ has begun selling equity ETFs and J-REITs at acquisition cost while allowing long-term bond yields to rise substantially, with the 30-year JGB yield reaching 4.0% and the 10-year yield reaching 2.7% despite maintaining policy rates at only 1.0%.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% in June 2026, up 8 basis points from May and 44 basis points since late February, while the 15-year rate averaged 5.82%, driven by market pricing of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes due to persistent inflation and a resilient labor market. The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.48% in June but eased later in the month to around 4.44% following a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement that temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping.
Capital Economics reports on S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI data showing a significant month-on-month decline to 38.2 with a fourth consecutive fall in the future activity index.
Capital Economics reports on the S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI for April, showing a sharp decline in the headline index and elevated input price pressures affecting the commercial property sector.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 57,000 jobs in June 2026 with the six-month average reaching 88,000, the highest in two years, while the labor force declined to 169.36 million amid a crackdown on illegal immigration and H-1B visa restrictions, resulting in a historically low 4.19% unemployment rate despite weak job demand. Employment gains across major industries showed healthcare and social assistance adding an average of 50,000 jobs over three months, while financial activities declined by 9,000 monthly on average due to real estate sector weakness, with prime-age labor force participation dropping to 83.3% in June as wage growth at 3.52% year-over-year lagged accelerating inflation at 4.2%.
The U.S. labor market added 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June 2026, the smallest gain since February, with downward revisions of 74,000 jobs to April and May reports indicating weaker underlying hiring momentum than initially reported. Residential construction employment declined 8,600 jobs in June and has shed 48,800 jobs over the past 12 months, marking the sixteenth consecutive month of annual decline, while the construction unemployment rate rose to 6.2%, the highest level since July 2021.
The share of mortgages with below-3% interest rates remained flat at 19.5% in Q1 2026 after declining steadily from a peak of 24.6% in Q1 2021, while combined below-4% mortgages fell only 20 basis points quarter-over-quarter, marking the smallest decline since their share began falling in 2022. The document attributes the stalling unwinding of the "lock-in effect" to homeowners retaining ultra-low mortgages that offer effectively free borrowing in real terms given inflation above 3%, though the stall could represent either a temporary blip or a longer-term freezing of the housing market.
Private residential construction spending reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $930.2 billion in May 2026, up 0.3% from April and 1.8% from a year earlier, with remodeling spending driving the increase at 0.9% monthly and 8.1% annually while single-family construction declined 0.1% monthly and 4.0% annually. The data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows multifamily construction spending edged down 0.1% monthly but rose 3.3% year-over-year, and private nonresidential construction spending decreased 0.3% monthly and 6.6% annually, though data center spending continued to grow at 0.6% monthly and 23% year-over-year.
The yen has fallen to a four-decade low of ¥162.8 per US dollar, declining 37% since 2021 and 53% since 2012, while Japanese Government Bond yields have surged to three-decade highs, with the 30-year yield at approximately 3.96% and the 10-year yield at 2.70%. The Bank of Japan's decades-long ultra-loose monetary policy, combined with only modest recent rate increases to 1.0% and quantitative tightening that has reduced its balance sheet by 12.6%, are described as insufficient to stabilize the currency or address resulting import-driven inflation and rising government borrowing costs.
INREV reports improvement in its consensus sentiment indicator, showing the first positive movement after a three-quarter decline.
INREV reports its Consensus Indicator has declined to 52.2, marking a second consecutive drop, signaling shifting sentiment in European real estate markets.
The Consumer Confidence Index rose from 90.6 to 91.2 in June 2026, driven by improved business conditions and declining oil prices, though consumer views of the labor market weakened with the share reporting jobs as "hard to get" reaching a five-and-a-half-year high at 22.5%. The Present Situation Index fell to 116.4 while the Expectation Index rose to 74.4, marking the seventeenth consecutive month below the 80 threshold often associated with recession signals within a year.
CRMLS, the largest real estate listing service in the country, just gave home sellers a more flexible way to bring their home to the market before it is broadly launched across the internet. With a new Limited Exposure Coming Soon option, home sellers can ask their agent to market their home as a Coming Soon […]…
NAR economists analyze Federal Reserve policy implications for mortgage rates, highlighting inflation dynamics, rental trends, productivity gains, and energy market factors affecting real estate financing.
National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales increased 3.8% month-over-month and 4.8% year-over-year in May, with gains across all four U.S. regions.
The document identifies three economic developments to monitor during the week of June 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank Forum on Wednesday, labor market data releases including JOLTS, ADP employment, and the June employment report, and manufacturing and construction spending releases on Wednesday. The analysis notes that recent May Personal Consumption Expenditures data showed firm inflation at multi-year highs while the Atlanta Federal Reserve's Q2 GDP nowcast declined throughout the month, and signals that Treasury yields and credit spreads will be key indicators for commercial real estate credit pricing in the second half of 2026.
While the ceasefire reduces immediate energy risks, Australian construction costs are likely to remain under pressure.
The PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to a three-year high of 4.1% year-over-year in May 2026, with core PCE rising 3.4%, driven partly by energy price increases related to Iran conflict tensions. Despite elevated inflation, consumer spending remained resilient with a 0.7% monthly increase in May, though the personal saving rate held at a three-year low of 3.0% as households drew down savings to maintain spending amid eroding real income.
The median U.S. home price hit a record high, one factor that’s pushing some prospective buyers away. New listings of U.S. homes for sale fell 1.7% from a week earlier during the week ending June 21 to their lowest level since February. The total number of homes for sale dipped 0.4% week over week, the […] The post…
Passed unanimously out of the Senate Banking Committee, the ROAD to Housing Act embraces solutions to the housing affordability crisis like zoning reform and streamlining rules to encourage more homebuilding. For the first time since the foreclosure crisis, U.S. Congress has taken meaningful action to make housing…
New home sales of newly built single-family homes declined 7.3% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 units and fell 6.8% year-over-year, driven by elevated mortgage rates, rising inflation, and economic uncertainty that constrained buyer affordability. The median new home sale price reached $424,900, months' supply of new homes stood at 10.3 months (above the balanced market indicator of 5-6 months), and regional performance was mixed with the West experiencing the sharpest monthly decline of 26.9%.
High-flood-risk U.S. counties lost over 63,000 more residents than they gained in 2025–nearly double the prior year’s outflow. Flood-prone places are losing residents partly because of climate risk. Some residents are leaving in search of cheaper housing or different politics. Counties at low risk of flooding…
BGO chief economist Ryan Severino argues weak job growth does not automatically signal recession.
Half the committee is now willing to discuss another rate hike this year.
Inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May 2026, the highest in three years, driven by surging energy costs.
At the 2026 ULI Europe Conference in Berlin, speakers argued that Europe's future competitiveness will depend less on matching the scale of the United States or China and more on leveraging its strengths in governance, resilience, capital formation, and its network of highly livable cities.
Nationwide, 13.6% of the homebuying deals made in May fell through. That share has held steady over the last 4 months as buyers and sellers grow accustomed to today’s market. 4 of the 10 metros where contract cancellations were most common were in Texas, and three were in Florida; all are strong buyer’s markets.…
On Thursday evening, 26 February, Charter Keck Cramer participated in the launch of the Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) Victoria 2026 State Election Platform, contributing independent research and market analysis to the broader policy discussion – Repositioning Victoria in 2026. With Victoria…
Canada's labour market rebound supports commercial real estate stability, with the economy adding 88,000 jobs in May, the largest monthly gain since late 2024.
The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent; a higher-for-longer rate environment is curbing commercial real estate investment momentum.
June 2026 brief: job growth defies constraints as employers added 176,000 roles, supporting rental demand and consumer spending across commercial property types.
June 2026 brief: industrial demand is set to rise as a manufacturing recovery broadens, with output up 4.2 per cent month-over-month across most subsectors.
Lennar reported Q2 2026 earnings showing its average sales price per home fell 4.6% year-over-year to $371,000 (down 24.4% from Q3 2022 peak), reflecting approximately 12.9% in incentives and base price adjustments to sustain sales volume in an affordability crisis. The company increased deliveries by 2% to 20,519 homes and cut construction costs by 13% over several years, but gross margin fell to 15.6% from 17.8% year-over-year, while net income plunged 36% year-over-year to $305 million and Lennar's stock price declined 49% from its September 2024 peak.
Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data…
I’ve been thinking about this for some time. After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I’ve decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog. However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I’ll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. …