Chief Economist's Weekly Watch – June 29 2026: Warsh at ECB Forum, Employment Data, & Manufacturing Releases

The document identifies three economic developments to monitor during the week of June 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank Forum on Wednesday, labor market data releases including JOLTS, ADP employment, and the June employment report, and manufacturing and construction spending releases on Wednesday. The analysis notes that recent May Personal Consumption Expenditures data showed firm inflation at multi-year highs while the Atlanta Federal Reserve's Q2 GDP nowcast declined throughout the month, and signals that Treasury yields and credit spreads will be key indicators for commercial real estate credit pricing in the second half of 2026.