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The Trepp Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Delinquency Rate increased 51 basis points to 7.86% in July, as the total balance of delinquent loans rose by $3.52 billion to $47.5 billion. Among the loans that became newly delinquent during the month were 30 multifamily loans totaling $509.3 million. A…
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Among commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) mall loans, 96.3% of non-performing loans were written in 2016 or earlier, while loans written in 2017 or later are performing at essentially a 100% rate. The CMBS mall-loan market is not one population with a range of outcomes. It is two, split by origination…
Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's "Investors Priced Four Data Center Deals 55 Basis Points Apart ” report. Click here to access. Four recent data center single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals priced their last-pay AAA bonds across a 55-basis-point range.…
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Domestic private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance reached $76.2 billion through July 2026, measured by loan balance when each deal was sold, according to Trepp data as of July 31. Single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) deals, each backed by one property or one owner, made up $58.0 billion.…
Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's July 2026 CMBS Special Servicing Report. To access the full report, click here. The Trepp commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) special servicing overall rate declined 11 basis points in July to 11.09%, partially reversing the increases of recent months.
Underwriting expectations for occupancy during the multifamily market's post-pandemic boom reflected the strong demand that characterized the market in 2021. Record apartment deliveries in the years since have reshaped market conditions, creating a widening gap between those expectations and current occupancy…
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Multifamily has become a more important component of conduit commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) at the same time that recent-vintage performance has become harder to generalize. Multifamily represented roughly 20% to 23% of conduit securitization balance in 2024 through July 2026, compared with only 7% in…
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Delinquencies remain modest, but Austin has the highest multifamily watchlist rate among the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Austin’s multifamily challenges are not yet showing up primarily as missed payments. They are appearing one step earlier in surveillance. As of mid-July 2026, the…
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Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's "Freezing the Rent: How Expenses Impact the Multifamily Investor" paper. Click here to access it . Rent control debates usually focus on tenants, affordability, and housing policy. Investors and lenders, however, tend to focus somewhere else entirely: net operating income…
Second-quarter earnings calls from banks with meaningful multifamily concentrations showed significant divergence in performance and pipelines. The ten banks differed not only from one another but, with two exceptions, also from recent super-regional commentary, where lenders reported stronger pipelines and…
The August 2026 private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) hard-maturity 1 cohort totals $5.49 billion across 130 loan pieces 2 comprising 119 whole loans, roughly double July's $2.55 billion. Of the total, 125 loan pieces ($5.36 billion, 97.51%) are performing, while five loan pieces ($136.6…
Multifamily standards eased modestly during Q2, driven entirely by large banks, while aggregate demand remained essentially unchanged despite a sharp split by bank size. Trepp-i spreads are already at the bottom of their post-2021 range, suggesting that further competition may increasingly surface in loan structure…
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Eight of the 11 super-regional banks with comparable linked-quarter data reported higher commercial real estate (CRE) balances in the second quarter. But growth was uneven, and at several banks reflected acquisitions, greater utilization, or extensions that delayed runoff as much as new originations, while legacy…
Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's July 2026 CMBS Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. The Trepp commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) Delinquency Rate increased by 51 basis points to 7.86% in July 2026, led by a group of very large loans whose status moved…
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Commercial loan growth returned across the regional bank group and competition continues for relationship-driven commercial credit even as some banks report modest increases in non-performing assets. Second-quarter results from 11 super-regional banks delivered a more constructive lending signal than in the first…
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The Fed is expected to hold rates this Wednesday, July 28th, 2026, but a hike is a real possibility after surging energy prices revived inflation concerns. Meetings can move markets even when the rate does not change. In June, the Fed held and still jolted rate expectations, producing the largest hawkish surprise…
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Some of the strongest long-run single-family housing markets in the country have also been strong multifamily investment markets. But the two property types did not always appreciate at the same pace. To see where the relationship held, and where it broke down, Trepp compared annualized value growth across four…
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Roughly $11.4 billion of securitized grocery-anchored commercial real estate debt comes due between 2027 and 2029, which is about 62% of the entire $18.6 billion grocery-anchored universe. The wall is front-loaded: 2027 alone carries $4.2 billion of maturities, more than either of the following years. That much…
Last week's surge in oil prices pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels since early 2025 and put a rate increase back on the table, two weeks after a soft June inflation report had taken it off. Here are three things to watch for this week:
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Community banks in the $2 billion to $6 billion asset range are assumed to carry safer retail commercial real estate (CRE) exposure than their larger peers. The reasoning: community banks more frequently lend to ‘needs-based’ retail, which is a fundamentally different credit from a super-regional mall. We tested…
Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquency rates suggest Whole Foods is a riskier retail tenant than Walmart. That's exactly the wrong conclusion. Among the top 200 CMBS tenants, Whole Foods Market carries a 22.4% delinquency rate, followed by Safeway at 9.7% and Costco at 5.5%. By comparison, Walmart…
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Every commercial real estate loan starts with a single number: how much a lender is willing to lend against a collateral property. That initial number is determined through “loan sizing.” At the proposal stage, the originator receives and organizes materials from the borrower or their broker that report the…
New York's single-tenant retail market delinquency rate is more than double Los Angeles's. But the real story isn't how much distress exists, but what kind of distress it is. The New York City metropolitan statistical area (MSA) carries an 18.5% delinquency rate, compared with 8.0% in Los Angeles, the…
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The most competitive corner of the retail CRE lending market right now is not the safest slice of the stack. It is the middle. Over the past year, lenders have gotten meaningfully more aggressive on the 60-65% loan-to-value (LTV) band, tightening the marginal price of that incremental debt while pricing on the…
A strong local economy should translate into safer retail credit performance. Faster income growth gives households more room to spend, supports tenant sales, and should improve the performance of loans backed by retail properties. We ranked states by real wage growth and compared retail commercial mortgage-backed…
Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's "Where the Second-Half 2026 CMBS Refinance Gap Is Hiding" report. Click here to access it . Commercial real estate headlines continue to focus on the next wave of loan maturities. The assumption is straightforward: billions of dollars are coming due, making refinancing…
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Consumers say they feel worse than they did in 2008 and are spending like nothing is wrong. The Michigan sentiment index set a record low in May, the same month retail sales reached the top of their trailing year. The question for anyone in commercial real estate (CRE) reading the consumer is which signal to…
Last week's much softer June inflation report knocked a July rate increase off the table after hike odds had been climbing, and Chair Warsh did little in two days of congressional testimony to challenge that repricing. This week the Fed goes quiet ahead of its July 29 decision, while attention turns to the banks…
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A year-end market analysis examining office sector recovery trends and refinancing activity driving commercial real estate momentum in 2025.
Trepp and CRE Direct release a mid-year publication examining improving conditions in commercial real estate finance markets.
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Trepp introduced TreppLV, a platform for transparent, data-driven pricing of commercial real estate whole loans.
Trepp's property price index tracking Q1 2026 CRE transactions shows broad repricing stabilizing across property types with sector-specific pricing movements emerging.
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After two years of tighter credit conditions, the bank commercial real estate (CRE) lending story has shifted from whether banks are pulling back to where balance sheets are growing again. Aggregate loan growth has picked up in parts of the CRE book, and recent lending commentary has pointed to a cautious return of…
Trepp and Commercial Real Estate Direct released a year-end recap covering CRE finance and CMBS market activity, news, and trends.
Securitized Agency loan performance improved modestly in May 2026. The total Agency delinquency rate declined to 0.47%, holding near the low end of the narrow range that has prevailed since mid ‑ 2025, as shown in Figure 1. As in prior months, aggregate movement reflects program ‑ level composition effects rather…
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Florida’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in May, up from 3.7% a year earlier, one of the largest increases of any state and the highest Florida reading in nearly five years. The rate has continued to climb and now sits above the national unemployment rate of 4.3%.
Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's "Is It Time to Proclaim San Francisco Is Back?" paper. Click here to access it . After five years of headlines declaring San Francisco commercial real estate uninvestable, the narrative is beginning to shift. Leasing activity is accelerating, institutional capital is…
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Office performance is increasingly separating along asset quality, market depth, and access to capital. Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) data shows a market that is no longer moving as one, with high-quality, well-located assets continuing to attract tenants and financing while weaker buildings face…
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Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's June 2026 CMBS Special Servicing Report. To access the full report, click here. The Trepp commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) special servicing rate increased by 34 basis points in June to 11.20%, reversing May's decline. Across property types, special servicing…
Last week, the June Federal Open Market Committee minutes explained the hawkish hold, with inflation still the committee's dominant concern, while the consumer credit report showed card balances fell in May after two months of heavy borrowing. Here are three things to watch for this week.
Depending on your perspective, you may call it back-leverage or you may call it ‘loan-on-loan’ financing. Either way, loan-on-loan financing enables a fund to achieve higher leveraged returns while being an attractive risk-adjusted, capital-efficient way for a bank to lend. This primer is designed to explain how…
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The Fed has released the minutes of its June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the detailed record of the committee’s discussion that arrives three weeks after each decision. Chair Warsh has moved away from forward guidance, so markets get fewer signals about the Fed’s thinking in real time, and that…
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Self-storage commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) remains one of the cleaner credit stories in commercial real estate, but the sector is sending a more nuanced signal than the headline delinquency rate suggests. While delinquency remains just 0.05%, nearly 30% of the outstanding balance is now on the…
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Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's "The Midwest Multifamily Investment Mirage" paper. Click here to access it . The Sunbelt has become the market everyone loves to hate. Oversupply, concessions, elevated vacancies, and slowing r ent growth have pushed many investors toward a new narrative: that the Midwest…
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The artificial intelligence (AI) buildout is not lifting all commercial real estate equally; instead, it is creating a more concentrated market in which capital is increasingly flowing toward data center collateral, while office leasing benefits are accruing to a narrower set of markets and assets. For commercial…
The Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate decreased by 20 basis points to 7.35% in June 2026, led by a large lodging cure. The five largest newly delinquent loans accounted for $998.9 million of the $2.64 billion in newly delinquent loans, including a super-regional mall in Southern California, a regional mall in New…
Thursday's June jobs report added far fewer positions than expected, and the unemployment rate fell only because the labor force shrank. The report pushed back market pricing for a hike this year, a shift that will test how much weight the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) hawkish June signals still carry.…
Trepp's article curates five research pieces on commercial real estate finance topics relevant to mid-2026, highlighting studies on CMBS issuance, CRE CLO market recovery, office delinquency rates, bank CRE risk assessment, and hard maturity refinancing challenges. The article reports that CRE CLO issuance reached $11.2 billion by early March 2026 (up 34% year-over-year), office CMBS delinquencies hit 12.34% in January 2026, and $76.6 billion in CMBS loans faced hard maturity in 2026 with 36% carrying debt yields at or below 8%.
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Trepp analyzed private-label CMBS exposure across metropolitan areas tied to the original thirteen colonies, finding that New York remains dominant while southern colonies like Georgia and North Carolina have become stronger securitization markets due to multifamily and industrial growth, whereas legacy northeastern markets including Philadelphia and Baltimore face elevated office-related stress. The analysis examined three historic properties currently in CMBS deals: Hotel del Coronado performing strongly with a 57% LTV, 55 Wall Street on the watchlist due to cash flow reporting discrepancies despite full occupancy, and Historic Inns of Annapolis in special servicing with 88% LTV and declining occupancy metrics.
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The Trepp commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquency rate decreased 20 basis points to 7.35% in June 2026, driven primarily by a large lodging cure. Among property types, lodging posted the largest decrease of 79 basis points to 5.22%, while retail increased 30 basis points to 6.91% and multifamily rose 28 basis points to 7.23%, with the five largest newly delinquent loans totaling $998.9 million of $2.64 billion in total newly delinquent loans.
Bank CRE loan originations on balance sheets reached $6.2 billion in Q1 2026, up 23% year-over-year despite geopolitical headwinds including the Iran war, while the overall delinquency rate improved to 1.84% from 1.99% a year earlier. Office markets in Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Washington D.C. continued to show stressed conditions with criticized loan rates above 40%, and Phoenix emerged as the multifamily market leader in criticized loans at 31.8%, though Houston improved as new supply was absorbed.
A Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is a company that owns, operates, or finances income-producing real estate, created in 1960 to make real estate investment accessible to ordinary investors through diversified professionally managed property portfolios. REITs operate under structural rules requiring distribution of at least 90% of taxable income to shareholders, with assets and income primarily derived from real estate, and include equity REITs (owning properties), mortgage REITs (investing in real estate debt), and hybrid structures, with the U.S. REIT industry currently comprising 190 publicly traded REITs valued at $1.6 trillion in equity market value plus approximately $400 billion in non-traded REITs and an estimated $4.5 trillion in total real estate holdings across all REIT types.
The document identifies three economic developments to monitor during the week of June 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank Forum on Wednesday, labor market data releases including JOLTS, ADP employment, and the June employment report, and manufacturing and construction spending releases on Wednesday. The analysis notes that recent May Personal Consumption Expenditures data showed firm inflation at multi-year highs while the Atlanta Federal Reserve's Q2 GDP nowcast declined throughout the month, and signals that Treasury yields and credit spreads will be key indicators for commercial real estate credit pricing in the second half of 2026.
Trepp's analysis of CRE lending spreads from early 2025 through June 2026 finds that while spreads are compressing uniformly across property types at the 50-59% LTV level, relative premiums between property types are shifting—specifically, retail loan premiums have compressed relative to industrial loans, and office premiums have widened over retail. The report notes that these quoted spread movements may indicate capital rotation toward retail or competitive yield exhaustion in multifamily and industrial, though the data reflects only stabilized, low-leverage deals and may not signal broader credit repricing across higher-leverage or transitional assets.
Trepp's report identifies a metric—the ratio of acquisition financing to total issuance in CMBS—that has preceded every major commercial real estate correction over the past 20 years, with a critical threshold at approximately 30% of sector issuance. The analysis demonstrates that this signal appeared across all major property types in 2007 (office at 39%, retail and multifamily close behind) and again in 2021 in multifamily (47%) and lodging (63%), each time followed by deteriorating loan performance and rising delinquencies, with 252 multifamily and office loans from 2020-2022 already delinquent or in special servicing as of the report's publication.
Ten-year conduit loans have declined dramatically from 95.6% of conduit loan count in 2019 to just 12.3% in 2026, while five-year loans have become the dominant format in the CMBS market. Median 10-year conduit spreads tightened from 301 basis points in 2023 to 201 basis points in 2026, suggesting the remaining market reflects more selective underwriting rather than pricing that is prohibitively wide.
Total outstanding commercial real estate debt reached $5.1 trillion through Q1 2026, with banks holding $1.91 trillion (37.4% of income-producing debt), followed by GSEs at $1.16 trillion (22.7%) and insurance companies at $808 billion (15.9%), while securitized debt comprised $771 billion (15.1%). Key findings included securitized balances rising 8.6% year-over-year, banks growing 4.1% year-over-year in the income-producing segment, and near-term maturities of $311 billion and $186 billion concentrated among banks and securitized lenders respectively through 2026, with approximately $1.7 trillion of debt maturing in 2031 and beyond.
Five-year conduit loans have become the dominant structure in CMBS issuance, rising from 3.1% of loan count in 2019 to 91.0% by 2026, though this shift reflects market preference for shorter duration rather than aggressive pricing. Spreads have remained disciplined post-2023, stabilizing in the high-200s basis points across property types, with multifamily pricing most tightly (263 basis points in 2026) and lodging most widely (319 basis points in 2026), indicating that lenders continue to differentiate sharply by collateral quality and sector risk despite the structural shift toward five-year terms.
The Chief Economist's Weekly Watch for June 22, 2026 covers three key developments affecting commercial real estate: May PCE inflation data released Thursday with implications for Treasury yields and refinancing assumptions; Federal Reserve communication shifts following Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, which shortened the statement and removed forward guidance while projections turned hawkish toward a possible rate hike; and the Federal Reserve's annual bank stress test results released Wednesday, which assume a severe global recession and commercial real estate stress while maintaining current capital requirements without resetting stress capital buffers.
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At its June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who signaled a shift away from forward guidance toward allowing markets to price information independently, while the Summary of Economic Projections revised near-term inflation upward to 3.6% and the funds rate path to 3.8% without changing longer-run benchmarks. For commercial real estate, the meeting implies a slower return to rate relief in the near term despite unchanged long-run policy destinations, while Warsh announced five task forces to review Fed communications, balance sheet management, data collection, productivity, and inflation frameworks by year-end.