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The Trepp Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) Delinquency Rate increased 51 basis points to 7.86% in July, as the total balance of delinquent loans rose by $3.52 billion to $47.5 billion. Among the loans that became newly delinquent during the month were 30 multifamily loans totaling $509.3 million. A…
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Among commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) mall loans, 96.3% of non-performing loans were written in 2016 or earlier, while loans written in 2017 or later are performing at essentially a 100% rate. The CMBS mall-loan market is not one population with a range of outcomes. It is two, split by origination…
Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's "Investors Priced Four Data Center Deals 55 Basis Points Apart ” report. Click here to access. Four recent data center single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals priced their last-pay AAA bonds across a 55-basis-point range.…
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Domestic private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance reached $76.2 billion through July 2026, measured by loan balance when each deal was sold, according to Trepp data as of July 31. Single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) deals, each backed by one property or one owner, made up $58.0 billion.…
Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's July 2026 CMBS Special Servicing Report. To access the full report, click here. The Trepp commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) special servicing overall rate declined 11 basis points in July to 11.09%, partially reversing the increases of recent months.
Underwriting expectations for occupancy during the multifamily market's post-pandemic boom reflected the strong demand that characterized the market in 2021. Record apartment deliveries in the years since have reshaped market conditions, creating a widening gap between those expectations and current occupancy…
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Multifamily has become a more important component of conduit commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) at the same time that recent-vintage performance has become harder to generalize. Multifamily represented roughly 20% to 23% of conduit securitization balance in 2024 through July 2026, compared with only 7% in…
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Delinquencies remain modest, but Austin has the highest multifamily watchlist rate among the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Austin’s multifamily challenges are not yet showing up primarily as missed payments. They are appearing one step earlier in surveillance. As of mid-July 2026, the…
The August 2026 private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) hard-maturity 1 cohort totals $5.49 billion across 130 loan pieces 2 comprising 119 whole loans, roughly double July's $2.55 billion. Of the total, 125 loan pieces ($5.36 billion, 97.51%) are performing, while five loan pieces ($136.6…
Multifamily standards eased modestly during Q2, driven entirely by large banks, while aggregate demand remained essentially unchanged despite a sharp split by bank size. Trepp-i spreads are already at the bottom of their post-2021 range, suggesting that further competition may increasingly surface in loan structure…
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Eight of the 11 super-regional banks with comparable linked-quarter data reported higher commercial real estate (CRE) balances in the second quarter. But growth was uneven, and at several banks reflected acquisitions, greater utilization, or extensions that delayed runoff as much as new originations, while legacy…
Disclaimer: This text is an excerpt from Trepp's July 2026 CMBS Delinquency Report. To access the full analysis of the report, click here. The Trepp commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) Delinquency Rate increased by 51 basis points to 7.86% in July 2026, led by a group of very large loans whose status moved…
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Commercial loan growth returned across the regional bank group and competition continues for relationship-driven commercial credit even as some banks report modest increases in non-performing assets. Second-quarter results from 11 super-regional banks delivered a more constructive lending signal than in the first…
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Some of the strongest long-run single-family housing markets in the country have also been strong multifamily investment markets. But the two property types did not always appreciate at the same pace. To see where the relationship held, and where it broke down, Trepp compared annualized value growth across four…
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Roughly $11.4 billion of securitized grocery-anchored commercial real estate debt comes due between 2027 and 2029, which is about 62% of the entire $18.6 billion grocery-anchored universe. The wall is front-loaded: 2027 alone carries $4.2 billion of maturities, more than either of the following years. That much…
Last week's surge in oil prices pushed Treasury yields to their highest levels since early 2025 and put a rate increase back on the table, two weeks after a soft June inflation report had taken it off. Here are three things to watch for this week:
New York's single-tenant retail market delinquency rate is more than double Los Angeles's. But the real story isn't how much distress exists, but what kind of distress it is. The New York City metropolitan statistical area (MSA) carries an 18.5% delinquency rate, compared with 8.0% in Los Angeles, the…
A strong local economy should translate into safer retail credit performance. Faster income growth gives households more room to spend, supports tenant sales, and should improve the performance of loans backed by retail properties. We ranked states by real wage growth and compared retail commercial mortgage-backed…
Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's "Where the Second-Half 2026 CMBS Refinance Gap Is Hiding" report. Click here to access it . Commercial real estate headlines continue to focus on the next wave of loan maturities. The assumption is straightforward: billions of dollars are coming due, making refinancing…
Last week's much softer June inflation report knocked a July rate increase off the table after hike odds had been climbing, and Chair Warsh did little in two days of congressional testimony to challenge that repricing. This week the Fed goes quiet ahead of its July 29 decision, while attention turns to the banks…
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A year-end market analysis examining office sector recovery trends and refinancing activity driving commercial real estate momentum in 2025.
Trepp and CRE Direct release a mid-year publication examining improving conditions in commercial real estate finance markets.
Trepp's property price index tracking Q1 2026 CRE transactions shows broad repricing stabilizing across property types with sector-specific pricing movements emerging.
Trepp and Commercial Real Estate Direct released a year-end recap covering CRE finance and CMBS market activity, news, and trends.
Securitized Agency loan performance improved modestly in May 2026. The total Agency delinquency rate declined to 0.47%, holding near the low end of the narrow range that has prevailed since mid ‑ 2025, as shown in Figure 1. As in prior months, aggregate movement reflects program ‑ level composition effects rather…
Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's "Is It Time to Proclaim San Francisco Is Back?" paper. Click here to access it . After five years of headlines declaring San Francisco commercial real estate uninvestable, the narrative is beginning to shift. Leasing activity is accelerating, institutional capital is…
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Office performance is increasingly separating along asset quality, market depth, and access to capital. Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) data shows a market that is no longer moving as one, with high-quality, well-located assets continuing to attract tenants and financing while weaker buildings face…
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Disclaimer: This is an excerpt from Trepp's June 2026 CMBS Special Servicing Report. To access the full report, click here. The Trepp commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) special servicing rate increased by 34 basis points in June to 11.20%, reversing May's decline. Across property types, special servicing…
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The Fed has released the minutes of its June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the detailed record of the committee’s discussion that arrives three weeks after each decision. Chair Warsh has moved away from forward guidance, so markets get fewer signals about the Fed’s thinking in real time, and that…
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Self-storage commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) remains one of the cleaner credit stories in commercial real estate, but the sector is sending a more nuanced signal than the headline delinquency rate suggests. While delinquency remains just 0.05%, nearly 30% of the outstanding balance is now on the…
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The artificial intelligence (AI) buildout is not lifting all commercial real estate equally; instead, it is creating a more concentrated market in which capital is increasingly flowing toward data center collateral, while office leasing benefits are accruing to a narrower set of markets and assets. For commercial…
The Trepp CMBS Delinquency Rate decreased by 20 basis points to 7.35% in June 2026, led by a large lodging cure. The five largest newly delinquent loans accounted for $998.9 million of the $2.64 billion in newly delinquent loans, including a super-regional mall in Southern California, a regional mall in New…
Thursday's June jobs report added far fewer positions than expected, and the unemployment rate fell only because the labor force shrank. The report pushed back market pricing for a hike this year, a shift that will test how much weight the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) hawkish June signals still carry.…
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The Trepp commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquency rate decreased 20 basis points to 7.35% in June 2026, driven primarily by a large lodging cure. Among property types, lodging posted the largest decrease of 79 basis points to 5.22%, while retail increased 30 basis points to 6.91% and multifamily rose 28 basis points to 7.23%, with the five largest newly delinquent loans totaling $998.9 million of $2.64 billion in total newly delinquent loans.
Bank CRE loan originations on balance sheets reached $6.2 billion in Q1 2026, up 23% year-over-year despite geopolitical headwinds including the Iran war, while the overall delinquency rate improved to 1.84% from 1.99% a year earlier. Office markets in Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Washington D.C. continued to show stressed conditions with criticized loan rates above 40%, and Phoenix emerged as the multifamily market leader in criticized loans at 31.8%, though Houston improved as new supply was absorbed.
The document identifies three economic developments to monitor during the week of June 29, 2026: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank Forum on Wednesday, labor market data releases including JOLTS, ADP employment, and the June employment report, and manufacturing and construction spending releases on Wednesday. The analysis notes that recent May Personal Consumption Expenditures data showed firm inflation at multi-year highs while the Atlanta Federal Reserve's Q2 GDP nowcast declined throughout the month, and signals that Treasury yields and credit spreads will be key indicators for commercial real estate credit pricing in the second half of 2026.
Trepp's report identifies a metric—the ratio of acquisition financing to total issuance in CMBS—that has preceded every major commercial real estate correction over the past 20 years, with a critical threshold at approximately 30% of sector issuance. The analysis demonstrates that this signal appeared across all major property types in 2007 (office at 39%, retail and multifamily close behind) and again in 2021 in multifamily (47%) and lodging (63%), each time followed by deteriorating loan performance and rising delinquencies, with 252 multifamily and office loans from 2020-2022 already delinquent or in special servicing as of the report's publication.
Total outstanding commercial real estate debt reached $5.1 trillion through Q1 2026, with banks holding $1.91 trillion (37.4% of income-producing debt), followed by GSEs at $1.16 trillion (22.7%) and insurance companies at $808 billion (15.9%), while securitized debt comprised $771 billion (15.1%). Key findings included securitized balances rising 8.6% year-over-year, banks growing 4.1% year-over-year in the income-producing segment, and near-term maturities of $311 billion and $186 billion concentrated among banks and securitized lenders respectively through 2026, with approximately $1.7 trillion of debt maturing in 2031 and beyond.
The Chief Economist's Weekly Watch for June 22, 2026 covers three key developments affecting commercial real estate: May PCE inflation data released Thursday with implications for Treasury yields and refinancing assumptions; Federal Reserve communication shifts following Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, which shortened the statement and removed forward guidance while projections turned hawkish toward a possible rate hike; and the Federal Reserve's annual bank stress test results released Wednesday, which assume a severe global recession and commercial real estate stress while maintaining current capital requirements without resetting stress capital buffers.
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At its June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who signaled a shift away from forward guidance toward allowing markets to price information independently, while the Summary of Economic Projections revised near-term inflation upward to 3.6% and the funds rate path to 3.8% without changing longer-run benchmarks. For commercial real estate, the meeting implies a slower return to rate relief in the near term despite unchanged long-run policy destinations, while Warsh announced five task forces to review Fed communications, balance sheet management, data collection, productivity, and inflation frameworks by year-end.
Trepp analyzed 1,419 re-securitization pairs of 1970s-vintage multifamily properties across 1,299 unique properties from 2021 through May 2026, finding a median value increase of 63.08% ($9.0 million) with median NOI growth of 39.38% and 81 basis points of cap rate compression, though value gains have slowed significantly after 2022 with median increases declining from 76% in 2022 to 38% in 2026 and cap rate compression largely disappearing. The strongest valuations occurred in Sun Belt markets like Houston and Phoenix (101-103% increases) and when properties transitioned from conduit loans to CRE CLOs (313% median increase), but properties already in CLO structures showed minimal re-pricing gains, suggesting future value growth will depend more on operational improvements than market-wide multiple expansion.
In Q1 2026, the largest banks (those with assets above $100 billion) saw commercial real estate delinquency rates decline sharply from approximately 1.9% to 1.5%, reflecting resolution of concentrated distressed office loans, while regional and community banks in the $16 to $40 billion asset range experienced the largest increases in delinquency rates. The divergence between largest and smaller banks mirrors patterns seen during the Global Financial Crisis, though at significantly lower magnitudes, with current median delinquency rates outside the top tier remaining below 1% compared to peaks near 4% during the GFC.
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The document discusses three key developments affecting commercial real estate finance for the week of June 15, 2026: the FOMC meeting on June 16–17 under new chair Kevin Warsh, movements in the Treasury yield curve reflecting short- and long-term rate expectations, and tightening of balance sheet lending spreads amid competitive loan markets. The analysis focuses on how Fed communication and rate signals will influence borrower and lender assumptions, the relative pressure on floating-rate versus fixed-rate refinancing structures, and whether recent spread tightening in loan markets will persist or diverge from wider spreads in lower-rated CMBS bonds.
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Detroit's office CMBS market totals approximately $2.0 billion across fewer than 200 properties, with office loans representing $741.83 million of upcoming maturities. Despite Detroit office assets showing weaker utilization metrics than national CMBS averages—including weighted-average occupancy in the high-70% range and over a quarter of securitized balances reporting vacancy above 25%—the market exhibits materially lower credit stress than national benchmarks, with fewer loans above 100% LTV, lower delinquency rates, and below-average watchlist exposure, a disconnect attributed to Detroit's small, less-impaired securitized base rather than superior operating fundamentals.
The Trepp Property Price Index (TPPI) for Q1 2026 shows commercial real estate pricing stabilizing broadly across the market, with the equal-weighted composite index rising 0.09% in the quarter to sit 4.45% above its June 2022 level, while the value-weighted index increased 0.07% but remained 7.53% below the 2022 peak. Sector-specific results revealed uneven recovery: industrial and office prices showed modest gains, retail remained relatively stable, multifamily weakened with a 0.77% quarterly decline, and lodging remained the worst performer at 12.50% below June 2022 levels, though the analysis notes that smaller and mid-sized assets are finding firmer footing while larger institutional properties continue to face financing constraints and incomplete price discovery.
The Trepp CMBS Special Servicing Rate decreased by 51 basis points in May 2026 to 10.86%, driven primarily by an office loan returning to the master servicer and denominator effects, with special servicing rates declining across most property types including office (down 91 basis points to 16.75%), lodging (down 121 basis points to 8.45%), and multifamily (down 57 basis points to 8.51%). New transfers to special servicing totaled approximately $2.9 billion across 59 loans in May.
The document is a letter from the editor of Trepp and Commercial Real Estate Direct's 2026 mid-year magazine covering commercial real estate finance and CMBS markets, reporting that CMBS issuance reached nearly $52 billion through mid-May 2026 (up 16% year-over-year), CRE CLO issuance totaled $21.61 billion (up 60% year-over-year), and lenders have increased lending against multifamily properties and office buildings despite acknowledged risks including inflation and geopolitical concerns. The editor notes that while CMBS delinquencies have increased month-to-month, overall special servicing volumes remain stable and market conditions are stabilizing, though investors and lenders continue to move cautiously.
Trepp's research blog covers CMBS, CRE lending and banking, noting capital is flowing again into 2026 as rates ease and leasing fundamentals stabilize.
Trepp's monthly delinquency report tracks CMBS late-payment rates by property type, with office continuing to carry the highest delinquency among the major sectors.
Trepp reports the CMBS delinquency rate rose 4 basis points to 7.30 percent in December 2025, with lodging up 44 basis points to 6.61 percent and office retreating 37 basis points to 11.31 percent.
Trepp's Mid-Year 2025 publication highlights strong multifamily fundamentals despite signs of growing distress across other commercial real estate sectors.