Large Bank CRE Delinquency Rates Drop Sharply in Q1, While Others Drift Higher

In Q1 2026, the largest banks (those with assets above $100 billion) saw commercial real estate delinquency rates decline sharply from approximately 1.9% to 1.5%, reflecting resolution of concentrated distressed office loans, while regional and community banks in the $16 to $40 billion asset range experienced the largest increases in delinquency rates. The divergence between largest and smaller banks mirrors patterns seen during the Global Financial Crisis, though at significantly lower magnitudes, with current median delinquency rates outside the top tier remaining below 1% compared to peaks near 4% during the GFC.