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This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 311 thousand. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."
The household real estate asset market value reached $48.7 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 1.7% increase from the fourth quarter and a 2.6% increase year-over-year, while owners' equity in real estate totaled $34.9 trillion with a 71.6% equity share. Among generational cohorts as of the fourth quarter of 2025, Baby Boomers held the largest real estate assets at $19.4 trillion, followed by Gen X at $14.3 trillion and Millennials at $10.2 trillion, with Millennials experiencing the highest percentage gain of 80.4% since the fourth quarter of 2020.
The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate at 3.75% in its June 2026 meeting under new Chair Warsh while adopting a more hawkish tone, removing the prior easing bias and emphasizing price stability, with the Summary of Economic Projections revising 2026 core PCE inflation expectations upward to 3.3% from 2.7% and indicating at least one rate hike by end of 2026. Chair Warsh announced a task force to review Fed operations across communications, balance sheet strategy, data sources, productivity analysis, and inflation framework, and acknowledged that current Fed policy is "somewhat restrictive" for the housing market while economic growth is projected at 2.2% for 2026 and unemployment at 4.3%.
Housing starts fell 15.4% in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million units, with multifamily construction dropping 40.2% month-over-month and single-family starts declining 1.9%, attributed to high interest rates, rising construction costs, and labor shortages. The total number of housing units under construction declined 7.1% year-over-year to 1.27 million units, while regional performance varied, with the Northeast showing strength but the South and West posting declines.
Builder confidence in newly built single-family homes fell to 35 in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for June 2026, marking the 14th consecutive month below 50, driven by rising material costs, elevated mortgage rates, and affordability challenges. The survey found that 35% of builders cut prices in June with an average reduction of 6%, while 62% used sales incentives, and regulatory costs were estimated to add more than 26% to the price of an average single-family home.
Through April 2026, single-family residential permits declined 6.4 percent year-over-year to 299,642 units nationwide due to affordability challenges and elevated borrowing costs, while multifamily permits increased 7.5 percent to 166,252 units with strong regional gains led by the Northeast's 33.5 percent increase. Regionally, single-family permitting fell in all four regions with the Northeast declining 13.8 percent, while multifamily permits rose in three of four regions with only the South experiencing an 8.4 percent decrease.
Residential building material prices, excluding energy, rose 4.4% year-over-year in May 2026, their highest rate since January 2023, while the price index for inputs to new residential construction increased 1.3% monthly and 6.9% annually. Energy prices for residential construction rose 17.2% in May and were 62.8% higher than a year prior, with No. 2 diesel fuel up 105.9% year-over-year, though gypsum building material prices declined 1.1% from the previous year.
An NAHB study estimates that government regulations account for $131,734, or 26.4% of the average price of a new single-family home, comprising $46,795 in lot-development regulatory costs and $84,939 in builder-phase construction costs. The regulatory cost burden increased 40% from the 2021 estimate of $93,871, more than double the 2011 estimate of $65,224, based on surveys conducted in March 2026 and calibrated against a January 2026 average new home price of $499,500.
The Consumer Price Index rose to 4.2% annually in May 2026, marking the highest increase in three years, with energy costs—driven by the Iran war—accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase and pushing gasoline prices up more than a dollar. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 2.9% annually, the shelter index rose 3.4% year-over-year, and the energy component surged 23.5% annually, while inflation outpaced wage growth for the second consecutive month and energy prices are expected to remain elevated for months ahead.
Existing home sales rose 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units in May 2026, reaching a five-month high as the first-time buyer share climbed to 35%, the highest since June 2020, according to National Association of Realtors data cited in this NAHB blog post. Despite the sales increase, inventory remained tight at 1.55 million units with a 4.5-month supply, mortgage rates held around 6.5% after rising over 50 basis points since late February, and the median existing home price reached $429,300, up 1.3% year-over-year for the 35th consecutive month of annual gains.
Mortgage application activity declined 5.5% month-over-month in May 2026 due to higher rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.54%, though adjustable-rate mortgages gained share to 9.0% of total applications as borrowers sought lower initial rates. Year-over-year, total mortgage applications remained 14.2% higher, with refinance applications up 26.4% and purchase applications rising 6.2%, while ARM applications increased 38.2% compared to May 2025.
The U.S. labor market showed continued resilience in May 2026, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 172,000 jobs for the third consecutive month and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, while wage growth moderated to 3.4% year-over-year. Job gains concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care, though residential construction employment declined by 33,300 jobs over the past 12 months, marking the fifteenth consecutive annual decline.
The median wage of construction payroll workers in 2025 was $61,370, exceeding the U.S. median of $50,980, with Chief Executive Officers earning the highest median wages in the industry at over $198,000. Among construction trades specifically, elevator installers and repairers topped the list with a median wage of $113,710, while carpenters, plumbers, and electricians all earned substantially above the national median, with wage variation generally correlating to required education, training, and expertise levels.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.41% in May 2026, up 7 basis points from April and 36 basis points since the Middle East conflict began, while the 15-year rate averaged 5.76%, also up 7 basis points monthly as elevated inflation and rising energy prices pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.47%. Persistently high inflation strained household budgets, causing the personal saving rate to fall to 2.6% in April, the lowest level since June 2022.
National house prices rose 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, the slowest annual appreciation since the second quarter of 2012, driven by higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Regional variation was pronounced: Puerto Rico led with 16.3% appreciation while Colorado recorded the largest decline at 2.4%, and among the 100 largest metro areas, annual appreciation ranged from −6.9% to +10.8%, with Midwest and Northeast metros outperforming while markets in Florida and Texas weakened.
In April 2026, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 41 states and the District of Columbia with a national gain of 115,000 jobs, while construction employment added 9,000 jobs nationwide with 32 states recording gains. State unemployment rates ranged from 2.2 percent in South Dakota to 6.2 percent in the District of Columbia, which experienced significant federal workforce reductions exceeding 300,000 positions in 2025.
Construction job openings in the United States increased slightly from 234,000 in March to 259,000 in April 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, with the construction job openings rate rising to 3% in April from 2.4% a year prior. The article notes that while overall economy job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, construction openings remain measurably lower than three years ago due to declines in housing construction activity, though recent nonresidential construction gains have provided some offset.
Single-family construction declined across all geographies in Q1 2026, with large metro core counties experiencing the sharpest pullback of 16.0% year-over-year, driven by elevated interest rates, rising material costs, and labor shortages, while multifamily construction expanded in most markets with large metro core counties leading at 20.8% growth. The data reflects a decade-long structural shift away from dense population centers toward smaller and outlying markets in single-family construction, while multifamily construction has recently begun regaining share in large metro core counties after a period of migration to smaller markets.
Private residential construction spending increased 0.8% in April 2026, driven primarily by gains in single-family and home improvement spending, with total private residential construction spending 1.7% higher than April 2025. Single-family construction spending rose 1.4% monthly but declined 2.9% year-over-year, while remodeling spending increased 0.4% monthly and was up 7.5% year-over-year, whereas multifamily construction spending edged down 0.3% in April but remained 1.1% higher than a year earlier.
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At its June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who signaled a shift away from forward guidance toward allowing markets to price information independently, while the Summary of Economic Projections revised near-term inflation upward to 3.6% and the funds rate path to 3.8% without changing longer-run benchmarks. For commercial real estate, the meeting implies a slower return to rate relief in the near term despite unchanged long-run policy destinations, while Warsh announced five task forces to review Fed communications, balance sheet management, data collection, productivity, and inflation frameworks by year-end.
The annual outlook reviews Canadian commercial real estate fundamentals and investment themes across the office, industrial, multifamily and retail sectors.
John Burns Research and Consulting reviews homebuilder incentive strategies designed to boost sales without reducing base prices amid muted new home demand.
Brookfield argues that midstream infrastructure, widely viewed as a sector in decline a few years ago, is now benefiting from stronger demand, renewed investment and expanding opportunities to acquire and monetize assets. It positions the sector as essential within an undersupplied energy system.
The June 2026 Beige Book provides a District-by-District summary of current economic conditions, including real estate demand, leasing and lending trends.
Cotality reported U.S. home price growth of 0.3 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent month-over-month in April 2026, with prices up 0.8 percent since the start of 2026. The firm expects home prices to rise 5.3 percent between April 2026 and April 2027.
Redfin reported there are 46.9 percent more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market, signaling buyers hold the power. In May 2026, 35 of the 50 most populous U.S. metros were buyer's markets, led by Sun Belt locations.
The quarterly snapshot reviews UK commercial real estate performance, returns and investor sentiment, with retail expected to be a standout sector as capital returns at greater scale.
Brookfield explores how institutions can take a more holistic, total-portfolio approach within traditional asset allocation frameworks. The piece argues this shift better integrates private markets and real assets into portfolio construction.
The April 2026 Beige Book reports on regional economic activity, labour markets and prices, with District commentary on commercial real estate and construction conditions.
Cotality's Home Price Index update ahead of the spring 2026 buying season showed home price growth rebalancing as affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates weighed on demand. The report tracks national and metro-level price movement.
The quarterly publication sets out Nuveen Real Estate's house view on opportunities and risks across global markets. It reports global private real estate values rising for five consecutive quarters through Q4 2025 and trailing transaction volumes of 890 billion dollars, up 17 percent year over year.
The piece describes a multifamily recovery defined by constrained supply and selective capital, taking longer than many anticipated, with rising resident retention.
The March 2026 Beige Book compiles anecdotal information on economic conditions gathered from business contacts across the Federal Reserve Districts ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Moody's Analytics CRE insights forecast roughly $805 billion in CRE lending for 2026, a 38% increase from 2025, with office and retail stabilizing and multifamily facing short-term headwinds.
The quarterly snapshot reports UK real estate delivered a total return of 7.1 percent in 2025, with rental growth and improved investor sentiment heading into 2026.
Blackstone President and COO Jon Gray writes that real estate is approaching the steeper phase of recovery, citing record leasing at Link Logistics, up 38 percent year on year, and New York City office leasing at levels not seen since before the pandemic.
Redfin's early 2026 housing market update found buyers cautious and sellers returning, with agents anticipating a busier spring. The report tracks inventory, listing activity and buyer-seller dynamics nationally.
The January research brief reviews labor market conditions and their implications for commercial real estate demand across property types in 2026.
AFIRE's February 2026 pulse survey captures institutional investor sentiment on US commercial real estate strategy, allocations and preferred markets heading into 2026.
J.P. Morgan Global Research projects US house prices will stall near 0% growth in 2026, with home sales gradually improving as mortgage rates ease and builders use rate buydowns to clear inventory.
The 4Q 2025 index rose 2.1 percent to 125.4 from 122.8 in 3Q 2025, approaching the all-time survey high of 126.6 set in 4Q 2024 as financing demand expectations reached a survey record.
Newmark Research frames its 2026 base case as a decaf stagflation environment, with industrial supply and demand rebalancing, office demand building and slowing multifamily supply shaping rent growth.
The January 2026 Beige Book summarises commentary on current economic conditions across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, including commercial real estate, construction and lending activity.
CBRE's flagship annual outlook projects U.S. GDP growth slowing to 2.0% in 2026 and commercial real estate investment rising 16% to roughly $562 billion, with returns described as income driven.
Morgan Stanley strategists lay out forecasts for mortgage rates and home prices in 2026 and 2027 and what they could mean for prospective homebuyers.
U.S. housing inventory expanded in December 2025, marking the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, with active listings up 12.1 percent versus December 2024. National inventory levels remain 12.5 percent below typical 2017 to 2019 norms.
The Office of the CIO outlook highlights macro events on the horizon in 2026, including Federal Reserve leadership changes, tariffs and US trade policy uncertainty, and the US midterm elections. The views draw on insights from more than 270 portfolio companies and roughly 13,000 real estate assets.
The quarterly market update covers leasing, investment and pricing conditions across Canadian commercial property. The national office availability rate fell 100 basis points year over year to 16.6 percent.
The outlook argues private real estate is poised for a meaningful recovery in 2026, with values stabilizing and total returns positive for six consecutive quarters. Global institutions begin the year below target allocation, with nearly three times as many investors planning to add capital as to reduce it.
New home sales among the 50 top-selling master-planned communities declined just 3 percent versus the pace set in 2024. The Villages led with 3,611 sales, up 13 percent, while Florida accounted for roughly 42 percent of top-50 sales and Texas around 32 percent.
PGIM Real Estate views valuations as near cyclical lows globally, positioning 2026 as a compelling investment vintage amid supply shortages, rising grade-A rents and structural demand. Investor surveys point to a pick-up in transaction volume across all sectors.
BGO chief economist Ryan Severino presents the firm's 2026 global outlook, projecting modest growth near 2 percent with moderating inflation and easing central banks. Industrial, housing and data centers are highlighted as the strongest investment opportunities.
The 2026 Europe outlook details country, capital, sector and submarket specific opportunities as the regional market emerges from the value reset into a new investment cycle.
TPG CEO Jon Winkelried surveys the 2026 macro outlook across policy, interest rates, and AI, and explains why he sees real estate as one of the more interesting investing opportunities ahead.
The first quarter 2026 U.S. outlook sets out BGO's house views on the economy and commercial real estate sectors. The report assesses fundamentals across industrial, housing, retail and office as the cycle turns.
KKR's 2026 Private Markets Outlook explores high-grading portfolios for quality and resilience. It lays out the firm's latest cross-asset views spanning private equity, infrastructure, real estate and credit.
KKR's RIA survey finds that private market investments no longer fit the 'alternative' label given how many advisors now use them in portfolio construction. It reports that the share of RIAs planning to increase allocations to private real estate rose sharply year over year.
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group projects the U.S. housing market regaining momentum into 2026 with total housing starts near 1.3 million annually and multifamily construction leveling out as supply and demand rebalance, while the 30-year fixed mortgage stays above 6 percent through much of the forecast.
Nareit's 2026 outlook addresses persistent public-private and REIT-versus-equity valuation divergences, arguing that past cycles suggest the coming convergences will favor REIT outperformance after a volatile 2025.
Brookfield's credit outlook contends that continued investor appetite for private credit underscores confidence in the asset class. The piece makes the case for disciplined underwriting and a focus on asset quality across market cycles.